Fidelity Select Fundranker

Fundranker Blog—Market Category—Page 2

Correction Hits Market

With its plunge on May 20, the market finished wiping out its 2010 gains and sent major indexes into correction territory. As of May 20, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) fell 11.8% and 12.8%, respectively, from their recent bull market highs on Apil 23. Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio fell 13.2% over the same time period.

Much of the volatility in the market during the last week of trading in April and all of May so far can be attributed to investor concern about the European debt crisis and the possibility it could derail world-wide economic recovery from the Great Recession. For an alternate viewpoint, however, check out Tim Duy’s article about how the European debt crisis could be a net positive for the U.S.

Posted 5/21/10 1:02pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns May 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio extended its latest multi-month gain in April, 2010. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Apr 2010     3 19.803  14.838  11.021 

With its current three-month upturn, Fundranker has risen 12 of the last 14 months from its March 9, 2009, low. Through May 12, Fundranker was near to breaking even; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.562%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 11.771% on average. Over the 13 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.769%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.553% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns April 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 5/13/10 9:59am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Greek and European Debt

Greek and European debt weighed heavily on world markets during the first trading week of May. Many financial observers feared that Greece's financial situation could spread to other European nations, possibly setting in motion an even more widely spread downturn in world economies.

European Union nations are tied together with their common currency, the euro, which limits individual members solutions to debt problems, such as Greece’s current situation. Normally, a country would be able to devalue its currency to ease debt problems, but Greece is unable to do that unilaterally.

Paul Krugman, New York Times columnist and winner of the Nobel prize for economics, has a great blog entry today about Greece’s situation and weekend announcments from European Union ministers and the European Central Bank.

World markets have reacted strongly and positively to those announcements in today’s trading. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 Indexes were up 100 and 45 points, respectively, at 10am today, May 10.

Posted 5/10/10 10:37am ET in Economy, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Stealth Nasdaq

Apparently, the Nasdaq Composite Index has slipped under the radar. Possibly because recovery from the Great Recession has been hard to see from Main Street, nobody seems to have noticed that, as of April 23, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) gained 100% since its Great Recession low on March 9, 2009. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) gained 84%, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 79%:

Nasdaq 100%

Posted 4/23/10 8:16pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns April 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio added another multi-month gain in February and March, 2010. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Mar 2010     2 14.629  11.885  9.313 

With its current two-month upturn, Fundranker has risen 11 of the last 13 months from its March 9, 2009, low. Fundranker is up again through April 15; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.237%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 11.693% on average. Over the 13 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.371%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.326% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns January 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 4/15/10 9:14pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

One Year

At the depths of the Great Recession, when the market reached 12-year lows on March 9, 2009, despair seemed to be overwhelming. Then a market rally started, and hope returned, or maybe it was the other way around. Despite many calls for the market to test new lows, it never really did. You can see from the chart below that the market did turn down significantly three times over the last year, but always recovered.

As of March 9, 2010, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) reached a new high for the year-long bull market, while the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio were tantalizingly close to highs they reached in January.

After Fundranker, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 54.1%, 54.9%, and 55.1%, respectively, during the bear market that lasted from November 1, 2007, through March 9, 2009, they gained 61.5%, 72.8%, and 85.7%, respectively, during the year which ended March 9, 2010:

3/9/2009 through 3/9/2010

Posted 3/10/10 10:02am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns January 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio added another multi-month gain in November and December, 2009. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 

Fundranker’s current two-month upturn culminated a nine-out-of-10-month upward run from March 9 lows for 2009. Fundranker is up again through January 14, so perhaps it will extend its rally run still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.646%; the S&P 500 gained only 11.806% on average. Over the 12 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.516%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.446% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns October Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Posted 1/14/10 3:23pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally Report

What a difference 10 months makes. When the market hit Great Recession lows on March 9, 2009, things couldn’t have looked much bleaker. Even as the market began to recover some of the immense losses of 2008 and early 2009, financial pundits kept calling for it to retest its lows, which still has not happened.

Indeed, the American Association of Individual Investors reported this week that 38% of surveyed members were bullish on the stock market in the short term, up from 19% in early March, but lower than the 51% reported last August, and significantly lower than the 58% level reached in the latter stages of the bull market in 2007. Considering these readings as a contrarian indicator suggests the market rally has room to run in 2010, as the bulls have not yet started to stampede.

As of December 31, 2009, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund), and the Top Eight Model Portfolio were up 79.8%, 67.8%, and 58.6%, respectively, from their March 9, 2009, lows.

Posted 1/2/10 12:54pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Four Years of Publication

With the December, 2009, issue, Fidelity Select Fundranker has completed its fourth year of publication. From January, 2006, through November, 2009, the Top Eight Model Portfolio lost 3.317%, while the S&P 500 Index (as tracked by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (as tracked by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) lost 4.685% and 0.214%, respectively.

From January, 2006 through June, 2008, when the Top Eight Model Portfolio made its all-time high, it gained 41.969%. From January, 2006, through February, 2009, shortly before its March 9, 2009, Great Recession low, the Top Eight Model Portfolio fell 31.579%.

In contrast, from January, 2006, through October, 2007, when the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 Indexes made their all-time highs, they gained 30.893% and 28.218%, respectively. From January, 2006, through February, 2009, shortly before their March 9, 2009, Great Recession lows, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 Indexes fell 36.191% and 37.163%, respectively.

From March, 2009, through November, 2009, the Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 29.383%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 40.869%, and the S&P 500 Index gained 39.447%.

Posted 12/3/09 7:25pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

November Surge Renews 2009 Rally

As of Wednesday, November 11, the market rose seven of the eight trading sessions to that point in November, giving new life to the 2009 rally that began last March. On November 11, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Spartan 500 Index Fund) closed at a new rally high, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio closed 0.4% and 3.3%, respectively, below their values on October 19, when recent rally highs were set.

From recent rally highs of October 19, through October 30, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.6%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 6.0%, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio fell 9.7%. You can see that a good portion of this late October downturn has been recouped in the early November surge.

To give some perspective to the rally the market has enjoyed since March 9, consider these numbers. From October 31, 2007, market highs through March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 Index fell 54.8%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 55.1%, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio fell 54.1%. To completely recover from March 9, 2009, lows to their October 31, 2007, values, the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio would have to gain 121.5%, 122.7%, and 117.9%, respectively. Well, since March 9, they have gained 64.8%, 71.3%, and 52.9%, respectively, which are fantastic gains for an eight-month period, but you can see they have a long way still to go.

Posted 11/11/09 9:15pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

October Downturn

After hitting rally highs on October 19, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 Indexes turned down dramatically, falling seven of the last nine trading days of October. This downturn has not reached the point of calling it a correction, defined as a drop of 10%, but it did produce the first monthly loss for the market since this rally began in March. Several economic reports this week played into the downturn.

New home sales fell 3.6% in September, contrary to economists’ expectations of a seventh monthly increase in a row. Due to the coming November 30 expiration of the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, potential home buyers may be rethinking their plans. Legislators are working now to renew the credit.

The Consumer Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index both declined in October, although the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey reported that their U.S. reading had risen since their last survey in July.

The only good news this week was that the GDP rose 3.5% in the third quarter, and it sparked a sizeable market rebound on Thursday, October 29.

However, the Labor Department reported Friday morning, October 30, that consumer spending fell and personal income was flat in September, which worried investors enough to undo Thursday’s rebound.

Even though the economy expanded in the third quarter, it is by no means out of the woods. Consumer spending is the mainstay of the U.S. economy and is directly affected by consumer sentiment, which in turn is affected by the current high unemployment rate, now at 9.8%, and which economists expect to continue to rise as high as 10.5% through the middle of next year. The recovery is likely to be weak and slow until the jobs picture brightens.

Remember though, that consumer sentiment is largely a trailing indicator, meaning that it reflects more on what has happened in the past than what will happen in the future, making it a favorite indicator for contrarian investors.

Posted 10/31/09 9:07am ET in Economy, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns October Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained ground again in September, tying its seven-months-in-a-row record from May, 2002. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by the Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 

Fundranker’s current seven-month upturn of 42.376% places third in the list by percentage gain. Fundranker is up again so far in October, so perhaps we'll get to add another month to this upturn to break our seven-month record.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 22.223%; the S&P 500 gained only 11.994% on average. Over the 11 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker now has an average gain of 17.099%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.646% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns September Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Posted 10/23/09 2:43pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Average Monthly Returns

Fidelity Select Fundranker has monitored Nasdaq Composite Index performance (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) since October, 2003 and S&P 500 Index performance (as measured by Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) since January, 1997. For October, 2003, through August, 2009, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio and the Nasdaq Composite Index both had five months with negative average returns. For January, 1997, through August, 2009, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio had only three months with negative average returns, while the S&P 500 Index had five months with negative average returns. Here’s a chart of average returns that compares Fundranker’s average monthly returns to those of the Nasdaq Composite Index over nearly six years from October, 2003, through August, 2009, and Fundranker’s average monthly returns to those of the S&P 500 Index over nearly 13 years from January, 1997, through August, 2009:

Average Chart

Fundranker outperformed the Nasdaq Composite Index for only four of 12 months, but its average monthly return over the nearly six-year period topped that of the Nasdaq Composite Index by a little. Fundranker outperformed the S&P 500 Index for eight of 12 months, and its average monthly return over the nearly 13-year period was significantly better that of the S&P 500 Index.

Posted 9/20/09 7:58pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

September Surge

Yardeni Research reports that, going back to 1926, September is the only month with a negative average return. Well, September made an exception through the first half of the month this year; the market rose seven of 10 trading days through September 15. Over that time period, Fundranker's Top Eight Model Portfolio outperformed the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund):

Partial September Chart

Posted 9/16/09 10:23am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns September Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio has gone up another month since we last reviewed Fundranker’s upturns. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by the Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/August 2009     6 34.676  46.192  40.580 

Fundranker’s current upturn of six months is just one month short of our record upturn of seven months and places third in the list by percentage gain. Fundranker is up again so far in September, so perhaps we'll get to add another month to this upturn to match our seven-month record. September, a historically poor month for the stock market, has only been part of three previous Fundranker upturns.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.838%; the S&P 500 gained only 11.732% on average. Over the 11 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.399%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 12.899% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns August Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Posted 9/10/09 8:25pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally vs. Bull Market

The rally that started from the market low reached on March 9, 2009, is still going strong. When does it become a bull market? The answer is subjective and hard to pin down, but it generally calls for a prolonged period of rising stock prices. This rally has lasted nearly six months, but that is rather short compared to previous well-known bull markets. On the other hand, the stock market has increased dramatically in the five plus months since March 9. As of August 24, 2009, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio were up 59.5%, 53.3%, and 43.0%, respectively, since March 9.

There are several promising signs that this rally could continue. Consumer confidence rose more than expected in August, the housing sector is showing signs of improvement, the automotive sector just got a huge shot in the arm with the Cash for Clunkers program, unemployment dipped in July, and monthly job losses in July came in at 247,000, the fewest in a year.

Posted 8/25/09 3:39pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns August Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio has gone up another couple of months since we last reviewed Fundranker’s upturns. The table below shows Fundranker’s gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by the Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/July 2009     5 31.294  43.890  35.681 

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.669%; the S&P 500 gained only 11.487% on average. Over the 11 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.092%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 11.487% on average. See our June post about Fundranker Upturns for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Posted 8/15/09 11:25am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally Resumes

The spring rally we enjoyed, after pausing for four weeks, has turned into a summer rally. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 11 sessions in a row through July 22, 2009, hitting new rally highs every day since July 15. The S&P 500 rose seven sessions in a row through July 21, hitting new rally highs on July 20 and 21. Fundranker nearly matched the Nasdaq Composite, climbing 10 sessions in a row through July 22, finally hitting a new rally high that day.

As of July 22, the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio are up 52.1%, 42.3%, and 35.2%, respectively, since the bear market lows of March 9.

Investors apparently are pleased with second quarter earnings and future outlooks companies have been reporting recently. Although economic indicators are mixed at best, the stock market seems to be fulfilling its roll as an advance indicator of economic recovery.

Posted 7/23/09 11:15am ET in Economy, Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally Pauses Four Weeks

The spring rally we enjoyed has gone on pause the last four weeks. After hitting rally highs during the week ended June 12, 2009, the Nasdaq Composite and Fundranker fell three of the last four weeks, and the S&P 500 fell all four weeks. As of July 10, the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio are still up 38.6%, 31.0%, and 20.1%, respectively, for the rally since March 9, but they are down 5.5%, 7.0%, and 9.6%, respectively, since June 12.

Second quarter earnings season is upon us and quickly will tell us if and how much the economy and individual companies are beginning to recover from the recession. Given the past four weeks action in the stock market, investors clearly want to see some improvement before buying into the rally again. Several key companies will report earnings this week: Yum Brands Inc. (owns KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell), IBM Corp., Marriott International Inc., Harley-Davidson Inc., and Bank of America Corp. Earnings reports from these companies will provide investors with penetrating looks at just how much the economy is beginning to recover.

Posted 7/12/09 11:38am ET in Economy, Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally Falters

The spring rally faltered during the week that ended June 19, the last week of spring, and started summer with a precipitous drop on June 22. Is the rally taking a temporary breather, or are we seeing a more determined correction to the three-month runup we have enjoyed? The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which rose in both April and May, shows that the recession is losing steam. Economists predict a gradual recovery beginning later in 2009, so it’s more likely we’re seeing a temporary and healthy hesitation in a continuing market upturn.

The Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio fell 1.7%, 2.6%, and 4.5%, respectively, for the week that ended June 19. As of June 22, the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and Fundranker have gained 39.4%, 33.0%, and 20.6%, respectively, from their March 9 lows and are 7.3% higher, 3.2% lower, and 7.9% lower, respectively, than their January 6 highs.

Posted 6/23/09 10:42am ET in Economy, Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

DJIA Changes

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, made up of 30 U.S. industrial stocks chosen by the managing editor of the Wall Street Journal, changed last week. As of Monday, June 8, General Motors Corp., which declared bankruptcy on June 1, and Citigroup Inc. were removed from the average. Travelers Companies Inc. replaced Citigroup and Cisco Systems Inc. replaced General Motors.

General Motors had to be replaced because a company in bankruptcy is on a different playing field than competitive businesses, and it can no longer contribute to an index that tries to reflect the market as a whole. Although Citigroup is not in bankruptcy, it also was replaced because it is headed into a period of significant restructuring, and the Wall Street Journal felt its stock would reflect that process more than it would the banking sector.

The decision on which companies should replace General Motors and Citigroup was tied to the last time a DJIA component was changed. AIG was replaced by Kraft Foods last September, so Travelers Companies was chosen to renew an insurance presence in the DJIA. Also because of the earlier addition of Kraft Foods, the Wall Street Journal did not need another consumer goods company to replace General Motors. They chose Cisco Systems because they felt its products were relevant to economic and cultural adjustment to the digital age, much as automobiles influenced economic and social changes in the 20th century.

Posted 6/16/09 9:41am ET in Economy, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally Still Going

The spring rally continues to advance and now has lasted 14 weeks. The Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio all hit new rally highs on Thursday, June 11, and closed Friday, June 12, with gains of 46.7%, 40.8%, and 32.9%, respectively, over their March 9 lows. As of June 12, the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and Fundranker are 12.9%, 2.5%, and 1.5% higher, respectively, than their January 6 highs.

Posted 6/15/09 10:31am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wall of Worry

It’s said that bull markets like to climb a wall of worry. Although investor and consumer sentiment gauges have risen lately, they are still low by historical standards. Recent unemployment, manufacturing, retail, and other economic data paint varying pictures of the economy, some positive, some negative. Banks are raising capital and want to return TARP money to the government, but General Moters and Chrysler are both in bankruptcy and face major restructuring to remain viable businesses. So is there enough worry to propel this rally further? Shall we worry even about the amount of worry? Do we dare call this rally a fledging bull market?

Posted 6/9/09 10:02am ET in Economy, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally Update

The spring rally powered the market to new highs again this week, although the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Indexes were off slighty today, June 5, 2009. As of today’s close, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio, the S&P 500 (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) have gained 31.68%, 39.83%, and 45.99%, respectively, since their March 9 lows. As of June 5, the Nasdaq Composite is over 12% higher, the S&P 500 is nearly 2% higher, and Fundranker is nearly 1% higher than their January 6 highs.

Posted 6/5/09 11:26pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns

The market upturn since March 9 lows prompts a look at how Fundranker has performed when it has risen for multiple, consecutive months. The table below shows Fundranker’s gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by the Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/May 2009     3 18.245  28.986  25.876 

If you look at our recent post about Fundranker Downturns, you’ll notice that Fundranker has had significantly more multiple-month upturns than downturns and that the upturns tend to last longer than the downturns, as well. Over all the upturns, Fundranker had an average gain of 21.016%, while the S&P 500 gained only 10.997% on average. Over the 11 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker had an average gain of 14.905%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained only 11.325% on average.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Posted 6/4/09 11:45am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)