Fidelity Select Fundranker

Fundranker Blog—Market Category—Page 1

Nasdaq Hits All-Time High

The Nasdaq Composite Index set two new all-time highs on April 23 and 24, 5056.06 and 5,092.08, more than 15 years after its previous all-time high of 5,048.62, set on March 10, 2000, during the dot-com boom, but it backed off those highs by the end of April.

During that 15-year period, the Nasdaq Composite Index suffered two very serious bear markets and enjoyed two significant bull markets.

It hit a closing low of 1,114.11, down 78% from 19 months earlier on October 9, 2002, during the dot-com bust.

The Nasdaq Composite Index clawed its way back to an intervening bull market high of 2,859.12 on October 31, 2007, up 157% from five years earlier, during a real estate and financial system deregulation boom.

But when sub-prime mortgages blew up, starting a financial crisis and the Great Recession, it fell again to a March 9, 2009, low of 1,268.64, down 56% from 16 months earlier.

During the six-year plus recovery from the Great Recession, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose to its new all-time high of 5,092.08 on April 24, up 301% from its 2009 low.

While the S&P 500 index has made real (inflation-adjusted) all-time highs in 2015, the Nasdaq Composite Index is a long way from setting an inflation-adjusted record. Using March 2000 and March 2015 Consumer Price Index data, the Nasdaq Composite Index would have to reach 6,701.65 just to match its 5,048.62 March 2000 all-time high on a real (inflation-adjusted) basis.

Posted 5/4/15 9:02am ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Sets 64 New Highs in 2013

Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio had a banner year in 2013, setting 85 new bull market highs. Early on in those new bull market highs, on March 8, 2013, the Top Eight Model Portfolio hit a new all-time high, its first since June 23, 2008, and it went on to set a total of 64 new all-time highs in 2013.

In 2013, stocks put in their best year since way back in the dot-com bull market. On a total return basis, as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class, the S&P 500 Index gained 32.251% in 2013, the best it has done since it gained 33.628% on a total return basis in 1997.

The Nasdaq Composite Index had an even better year. On a total return basis, as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund, it gained 39.746% in 2013. It closed out 2013 at a bull market high, but not at an all-time high, which it set way back in 2000, shortly before the top blew off the dot-com bull market.

Topping both indexes, the Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 43.354% in 2013, its best yearly gain since a 76.892% burst in 1999 during the dot-com bull market.

Posted 2/17/14 9:06pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Sets New All Time High

On March 8, 2013, Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio set a new all time high, eclipsing the previous high it set on June 23, 2008. As of March 8, 2013, Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was valued at $218,123.44, up 44.915% from January, 2006, when Fidelity Select Fundranker was first published, and up a whopping 808.848% from its $24,000 valuation when we started the theoretical portfolio on January 2, 1997.

Coincidentally, March 8 also marked the end of the fourth year of the current bull market, which began after the March 9, 2009, market lows set at the end of the bear market precipitated by the Great Recession. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes both set new bull market highs, almost as if they wanted to commemorate the occasion.

Posted 3/8/13 9:22pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Stock Indexes vs. Total Return

We see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes on financial news every day, but did you know that they are calculated solely from the prices of their underlying stocks, do not include dividends, and thus do not show total return? That’s why we track Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class and Nasdaq Composite Index Fund to compare to Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio. That way, we can include dividends on both of those hypothetical tracking portfolios as well as our Top Eight Model Portfolio.

Now, let’s move to the financial news that you have not been seeing or hearing the last few months: The S&P 500 Index set a new all-time high on a total return basis on August 16, 2012, and it set several more all-time highs since then, most recently, as this blog entry is posted, on January 22, 2013. Get current quotes for symbol XX:SPXT at MarketWatch, or get historical quotes for symbol SPXT at BigCharts, a service of MarketWatch. MarketWatch started tracking this S&P 500 Total Return Index on March 30, 2009.

On a total return basis, the Nasdaq Composite Index surpassed the high it set in October, 2007, at the end of the previous bull market, over a year ago, on January 18, 2012. It also set numerous new highs since then, most recently on September 14, 2012. It has a long way to go, though, to reach the all-time highs it set back in 2000. Get current quotes for symbol XX:XCMP at MarketWatch, or get historical quotes for symbol XCMP at BigCharts. MarketWatch started tracking this Nasdaq Composite Total Return Index on September 21, 2009.

Posted 1/23/13 12:14pm ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

New Year, New Bull Market Highs

The bull market that began in March, 2009, is alive and well after nearly four years. Despite political fights past, present, and still to come, through January 17, the S&P 500 Index already set six new bull market highs for 2013. Apparently, economic fundamentals are trumping political wrangling. The S&P 500 Index set a new five-plus-year high on January 17, while the Nasdaq Composite Index set a new 12-plus-year high, and world markets set new 20-month highs.

Posted 1/18/13 2:01pm ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Aggressive Fed Stimulus

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System showed that its considerable concern over the struggling U.S. jobs situation outweighs political concerns by announcing another aggressive economic stimulus program today despite how close we are to the presidential election. The Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion of mortgage-related debt per month until the jobs outlook improves significantly as long as inflation remains in check.

The FOMC tied the Fed’s new stimulus program directly to economic conditions, stating "If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchase of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability."

In another show of concern over the health of the economy, the FOMC said "the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015." That extends from late 2014 their earlier low federal funds rate guidance.

Investors apparently approved the announcement wholeheartedly. The broad market S&P 500 Index was up 1.55% at 3:00pm today.

Posted 9/13/12 3:28pm ET in Economy, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Review of 2011 Performance

The bull market that began with recovery from the Great Recession charged into 2011, lifting markets and indexes to multi-year highs. The S&P 500 Index and the Top Eight Model Portfolio topped out at the end of April near their highs reached in October, 2007, in the final days of the bull market that preceded the Great Recession. The Nasdaq Composite Index surpassed its October, 2007, high in April, but it has a long, long way to go to reach its all-time high from March, 2000.

A multitude of international and domestic woes caused a five-month pullback that took a lot of steam out of the bull market and pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indexes as well as the Top Eight Model Portfolio into the red for 2011.

Improving economic data for the U.S. trumped further Euro zone problems over the last three months of 2011 and gave the bull market some renewed life. The S&P 500 Index scraped out a small gain for 2011. The Nasdaq Composite Index and the Top Eight Model Portfolio were slightly negative for the year.

Posted 1/10/12 10:40am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Greek Referendum

Prime Minister George A. Papandreou of Greece surprised the world by announcing that he would put Europe's latest rescue package for Greece to a referendum vote of the people. After being called to the carpet by European leaders, he announced on November 2 that the referendum would be held sooner rather than later, on December 4 or 5.

Prime Minister Papandreou's coalition government faces a no confidence vote on Friday that will be very close. His razor thin majority seems to be holding and even firmed up some recently after Papandreou's cabinet unanimously upheld his call for referendum. Even if Papandreou's coalition wins the no confidence vote, however, it is not clear whether the Greek parliament will pass the referendum.

World markets celebrated the announcement of the latest rescue package with large upswings, but the Greek referendum through a monkey wrench into its quick implementation. Investors now are faced with weeks of uncertainty in the European debt crisis. World markets reacted badly and promise to be roiled for some time.

Posted 11/3/11 11:05am ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Six-Month Winning Streak

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio extended its most recent multi-month gain to six months—September, 2010, through February, 2011; unfortunately, it stopped there with a small loss for the month of March. During that six-month period, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 35.516%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class) gained only 32.150% and 27.662%, respectively.

See our Five-Month Winning Streak post for a table that shows all of Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index.

With this six-month upturn under its belt, a slight loss in March, and another gain in April, Fundranker rose 20 months during the 26-month bull market that started in March, 2009. Perhaps Fundranker will extend its bull market run with a gain in May and mark a new multi-month upturn, April to May, as well.

Over all of its 23 historical multi-month upturns, Fundranker gained an average of 22.169%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 12.461% on average. Over Fundranker’s 14 historical multi-month upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker gained an average of 18.108%; the Nasdaq Composite Index gained only 14.881% on average.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 4/29/11 12:24pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

April Bull Market Highs

As of April 26, both the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class) hit new bull market highs. The bull market that began in March, 2009, is now nearly 26 months old.

As of April 26, the Nasdaq Composite Index is up 127.648% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low, and it is up 2.219% from the high it reached on October 31, 2007, at the end of the preceding bull market.

As of April 26, the S&P 500 Index is up 107.581% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low, but it still is down 7.178% from the all-time high it reached on October 9, 2007, at the end of the preceding bull market.

As of April 26, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio is up 98.543% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low, but it still is down 11.712% from the all-time high it reached on June 23, 2008, a few months into the preceding bear market.

Posted 4/27/11 1:50pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Market Volatility Surges

With continuing unrest in the Middle East, the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and Japan’s continuing nuclear disaster, world stock markets have been particularly volatile from late February and through mid-April.

Through March 16, when markets hit lows for the current downturn, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class) was down 6.258% from its February 18 bull market high, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) was down 7.627% from its February 18 bull market high, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was down 8.720% from its February 17 bull market high.

During the last half of March, however, the stock market broke to the upside, regaining most of the above losses. As of March 31, the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio were down only 1.071%, 1.807%, and 2.222%, respectively, from their mid-February bull market highs.

In April, the market turned down again, especially today, April 18, with the S&P 500 down over 1.5% midday on new worries that include today’s downgrade of the United States’ credit outlook by Standard & Poors and increasing concerns that Greece will have to renegotiate terms of its public debt.

Posted 4/20/11 1:09pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Nasdaq Recoups Great Recession Losses

We track the performance of the Nasdaq Composite Index so that we can compare performance of Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio to it. The Nasdaq Composite Index itself is a price-only index, meaning it does not account for dividends paid by its underlying stocks, so we measure the Nasdaq Composite Index using Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund, which does include dividends, thereby giving us a total return rather than a price-only return for the Nasdaq Composite Index.

As of February 8 and 9, on a total return basis, our Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Portfolio, based on Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund, completely recouped the losses it incurred during the Great Recession. Our Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Portfolio stood at $57,472.15 as of October 31, 2007. It fell 55.1% to a low of $25,806.24 on March 9, 2009, during the Great Recession. On February 9, it stood at $57,489.51 for a gain of 122.8% from that March 9 low.

Note that calculations using the Nasdaq Composite Index itself, because it is a price-only index and does not account for dividends of its underlying stocks, give slightly different numbers for Great Recession losses and current bull market gains. The Nasdaq Composite Index stood at 2,859.12 on October 31, 2007, at the end of the previous bull market, at 1,268.64 at its March 9, 2009, Great Recession low, and at 2,789.07 on February 9. Using these figures, the Nasdaq Composite Index's price-only Great Recession loss was 55.6%, and its price-only bull market gain was 119.8%. As of February 9, the Nasdaq Composite Index lacked 70 points of regaining its 2007 high.

Posted 2/9/11 8:45pm ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Five-Month Winning Streak

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio extended its latest multi-month gain to five months—September, 2010, through January, 2011. The table below shows all of Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Apr 2010     3 19.803  14.838  11.021 
Sep/Jan 2011     5 30.390  28.109  23.460 

With its current five-month upturn, Fundranker rose 18 months during the 23-month bull market that started in March, 2009. Fundranker was up again through February 7; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker gained an average of 21.946%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 12.279% on average. Over the 14 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker gained an average of 17.742%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 14.593% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns December 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 2/7/11 8:50pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Bull Market: 22 Months and Counting

The bull market that started in March, 2009, is alive and well through December, 2010, and into January, 2011. From March 9, 2009, through January 7, 2011, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) gained 115.853%, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) gained 94.974%, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 83.297%:

22-Month Bull Market Chart

To put these phenomenal gains in some perspective, as of January 7, the Nasdaq Composite Index was 3.077% below the 2007 bull market high it reached on October 31, 2007, the S&P 500 Index was 12.816% below the all-time high it reached on October 9, 2007, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was 18.492% below the all-time high it reached on June 23, 2008.

Posted 1/8/11 1:15pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns December 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio added another month to its latest multi-month gain, now September through November, 2010. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Apr 2010     3 19.803  14.838  11.021 
Sep/Nov 2010     3 19.015  18.515  13.057 

With its current three-month upturn, Fundranker has risen 16 months during the 21-month-long bull market that started in March, 2009. Fundranker is up again through December 17; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.451%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 11.826% on average. Over the 14 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.929%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.907% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns November 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 12/18/10 8:38pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (2)

Strong December Start

The market surged over the first two trading days of December, sending the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) up 3.268% to another bull market high.

The two-day surge sent the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) up 3.481%, but the index remained down a fraction of a percent from its November 5 bull market high.

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 3.391% over the first two trading days, putting it just a tiny fraction of a percent below its April 23 bull market high. The Top Eight Model Portfolio was not able to top its April 23 bull market high in November, but December’s strong two-day start put it ever so close.

Posted 12/02/10 11:59pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

New Bull Market Highs

After the last few dismal days for the market, it seems like a good time to review the market surge in early November. At its November 8 bull market high, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) was up 2.472% in November, 14.433% YTD, and 105.748% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low.

At its November 5 bull market high, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) was up 1.785% in November, 11.369% YTD, and 87.237% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low.

As of its November high on November 8 (not quite a new bull market high), Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was up 4.390% in November, 11.575% YTD, and 77.334% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low.

To put these amazing returns in some perspective, note that, as of their November highs, the Nasdaq Composite Index was down only 7.615% from its previous bull market high reached on October 31, 2007, the S&P 500 Index was still down 15.461% from its previous bull market high, also reached on October 31, 2007, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was still down 18.634% from October 31, 2007, and 21.143% from the all time high it reached on June 23, 2008, part way into the bear market caused by the Great Recession.

Posted 11/18/10 10:06am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns November 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio added another multi-month gain in September and October, 2010. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Apr 2010     3 19.803  14.838  11.021 
Sep/Oct 2010     2 16.524  18.763  13.030 

With its current two-month upturn, Fundranker has risen 15 months during the 20-month-long bull market that started in March, 2009. Fundranker is up again through November 8; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.343%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 11.825% on average. Over the 14 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.751%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.925% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns May 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 11/9/10 11:18am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

September Surge 2010

The stock market turned dramatically higher during the first 13 trading days of September. Through September 20, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio, and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) had September gains of 11.514%, 9.520%, and 8.988%, respectively.

Through September 20, both the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index moved into the black for 2010 YTD, as well, with YTD gains of 3.797% and 4.357%, respectively, and moved out of correction territory with losses of 5.310% and 6.552%, respectively, since their April 23 bull market highs.

Through September 20, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio also moved into the black for 2010 YTD with a gain of 1.573%, but it remained slightly into correction territory with a loss of 11.039% since its April 23 bull market high.

Posted 9/21/10 9:35am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Topsy-Turvy August

The S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) spent the first seven trading days of August in the black for August, in the black for 2010 YTD, and out of correction territory, that is, less than 10% down from their April 23 bull market highs.

Since then, through August 18, the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index both fell back into negative territory for August and for 2010 YTD. The S&P 500 Index moved back in and back out of correction territory, while the Nasdaq Composite Index moved back into correction territory and stayed there.

During the first seven trading days of August, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio also rose into positive territory for both August and 2010 YTD, but it never quite emerged from correction territory. Since then, through August 18, it fell back into the red for August and 2010 YTD, along with the indexes, and further into correction territory.

Mid-day on Thursday, August 19, as this entry was posted, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes were down about 2%, reversing three positive days that began the week.

Posted 8/19/10 12:44pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Bullish July

After the market hit 2010 lows in early July, the fragile bull market began to assert itself. As of July 23, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) emerged from correction territory, down 8.9% from its bull market high reached in April. The Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio, down 10.1% and 13.3%, respectively, from their bull market highs reached in April, don’t lack much to emerge from correction territory, as well.

Earnings season generally has been positive for the market so far in July, and more good results are expected from bellweathers such as Boeing, Chevron, and DuPont in the last week of July. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of economic conditions, new home sales, the Case-Schiller home price index, consumer confidence for July, durable goods orders, weekly initial jobless claims, and second-quarter GDP are all on tap to be reported during the last week of July, as well. Perhaps they will further relieve worries about a double dip recession, and the market will break definitively out of its summer doldrums.

Posted 7/24/10 6:59pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Bull vs. Bear

Through June 29, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund), the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio fell 14.1%, 15.5%, and 17.7%, respectively, from bull market highs they reached on April 23. That put them way into correction territory, generally defined as a 10% decline from bull market highs, and much closer to bear market territory, generally defined as a 20% decline from bull market highs, than any of us would like.

Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winning economist and NY Times columnist, wrote recently that he fears we are heading into a third depression, which he says primarily will be a failure of policy. Governments around the world seem overly concerned with inflation, when he says the real problem is deflation, and they are preaching the need for austerity when the real problem is inadequate spending to make sure we emerge completely from the Great Recession.

So what does our current situation mean for our economy and markets? Will the bull market that started in March, 2009, with the beginning of recovery from the Great Recession be able to overcome this correction, or will it turn into a bear market? Will private business be able to take over the spending necessary to keep the world economy expanding when governments begin curtailing their stimulus spending?

We’re convinced here at Fidelity Select Fundranker that our system of regularly moving into better performing Fidelity Select funds will stand us in good stead however the market reacts to future events. It’s unlikely that we’ll see markets react again like they did when world financial systems nearly collapsed in 2007 and 2008; there almost always will be at least a few sectors that perform well, and Fundranker will find them.

Posted 6/30/10 11:54am ET in Economy, Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker in the Black

Through June 11, 2010, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 1.1% YTD, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) remained in negative territory with losses of 0.8% and 1.3% YTD, respectively.

Posted 6/12/10 7:46pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Correction Lingers

The S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund), the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio remained in correction as of June 9, with losses of 13.0%, 14.6%, and 15.0%, respectively, from their April 23 bull market highs. In the first seven trading days of June, they lost 3.0%, 4.3%, and 5.4%, respectively, to add to correction woes that began in the last week of April and continued through May.

Contrarians still call for a short-term rally, however, because investor sentiment has turned down so dramatically. Mark Hulbert pointed out in a recent article that, as of June 8, the market was at about the same place it was during the last correction in January and February. At that time, the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index stood at 20.3%, meaning that market-timing newsletters in the Index recommended that their subscribers put 20.3% of their portfolios in stocks, on average. As of June 8, however, the HSNSI stood at negative 8.8%, meaning that newsletters in the Index recommended that their subscribers short the market with 8.8% of their portfolios. That’s quite a change in sentiment.

Contrarians contend that bull markets like to climb a “wall of worry.” This morning, June 10, the market is up over 2%. Perhaps they are right.

Posted 6/10/10 11:49am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Correction Recovery?

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) were still in correction as of May 28, with losses of 10.1%, 10.3%, and 10.7%, respectively, but in the six trading days between their May 20 correction lows and the end of May, they managed to gain 3.5%, 1.7%, and 2.4%, respectively, which is a good start in overcoming this recent setback.

The American Association of Individual Investors reported on May 27 that nearly 51% of investors were bearish about the market over the next six months in their latest weekly survey, a rise of 17% from the previous survey. Intuitively, this may seem like bad news for the market, but investor confidence traditionally has been a contrarian indicator, so this drop from dangerously high investor confidence is actually another good indicator for this bull market to continue its run.

Posted 5/29/10 9:45pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)