Fidelity Select Fundranker

Fundranker Blog—Page 1

Fidelity Rewards Visa Signature Card

Fidelity Investments offers the Fidelity Rewards Visa Signature Card, which has several great features: 2% cash-back bonus on every purchase, no limit on reward points, no restrictive categories, zero fraud liability, and no annual fee, among others. Link your card to several kinds of Fidelity accounts for automatic deposit of your rewards. Other cards that offer 5% cash-back bonus on rotating categories are great if you can keep up with them, but this card is a must have for everything else you buy.

We don’t encourage anyone to run up debt on a credit card, but if you have the self-possession to stay on top of your balance, using this card to pay for most of your regular expenditures is a great way to pay yourself back. For every $1,000 you spend, you earn $20 of reward points. In addition to store and online purchases, consider paying your monthly and less frequent bills (such as utilities, insurance premiums, or charitable contributions) with this card. Set these bills to be paid automatically using this credit card, and save yourself some time and postage not paying them one by one.

Posted 4/6/16 10:39am ET in Fidelity Investments | Permalink | Comments (0)

Investing in Energy

Fidelity Viewpoints published an article back in February about opportunity for long-term investors: Time for oil stocks? They point out that there has been an unprecedented pullback in oil since late 2013, and consequently, energy stocks look really cheap compared with their history. So the article asks, “Are energy stocks a buy—or are today’s prices a value trap?” The answer, they contend, depends on your time frame and tolerance for some gut-wrenching ups and downs. Finally, they point out that the seeds of a recovery in oil have already been planted.

We see this as a golden opportunity to combine a cautiously optimistic outlook in energy with the tried and true dollar cost averaging investment technique. Investors with an appetite for long-term returns could begin now to invest a set amount periodically in four Fidelity Select funds: Energy, Energy Service, Natural Gas, and Natural Resources. With the dollar cost averaging technique, an investor would buy more shares when net asset values fall and fewer shares when they rise, thus lowering the average cost per share over the long run.

Despite these four funds performing at the top end of Select funds in March, they still dwell in the bottom half of our Fundranker rankings. Unless they continue to outperform, they could languish in the bottom rankings for some time. For investors who want to take advantage of their possible rise in our rankings before they advance into the Top Eight Model Portfolio, and who are willing to take on the associated risk of underperformance, now may be a good time to begin investing in energy sector Select funds.

Posted 3/30/16 12:55pm ET in Investing | Permalink | Comments (0)

Upcoming Fidelity Fund Name Changes

Fidelity Investments will change the names of two Select funds as of January 1, 2016. Select Software & Computer Services (FSCSX) will become Select Software & IT Services. Select Medical Delivery (FSHCX) will become Select Health Care Services. The ticker symbols for the funds will not change. Fidelity Select Fundranker will note these changes in its January 2016 issue.

In particular, because the funds do not officially change names until January 1, 2016, our December 31 ratings and performance pages included in the January 2016 issue will not reflect the new names. However, if either of the funds are listed in the January 2016 Top Eight Model Portfolio or in exchanges for January 2016, the new names will be reflected. Beginning with our February 2016 issue, the new names will be used throughout the issue.

Historical information prior to 2016 in our online newsletter archive and on our online ratings, results, and portfolio pages still will reflect the old names for these Select funds. Going forward, of course, new newsletter issues added to our online newsletter archive and new ratings, results, and portfolio pages uploaded to our website will reflect the new names.

Posted 12/6/15 10:31am ET in Fidelity Investments, Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Nasdaq Hits All-Time High

The Nasdaq Composite Index set two new all-time highs on April 23 and 24, 5056.06 and 5,092.08, more than 15 years after its previous all-time high of 5,048.62, set on March 10, 2000, during the dot-com boom, but it backed off those highs by the end of April.

During that 15-year period, the Nasdaq Composite Index suffered two very serious bear markets and enjoyed two significant bull markets.

It hit a closing low of 1,114.11, down 78% from 19 months earlier on October 9, 2002, during the dot-com bust.

The Nasdaq Composite Index clawed its way back to an intervening bull market high of 2,859.12 on October 31, 2007, up 157% from five years earlier, during a real estate and financial system deregulation boom.

But when sub-prime mortgages blew up, starting a financial crisis and the Great Recession, it fell again to a March 9, 2009, low of 1,268.64, down 56% from 16 months earlier.

During the six-year plus recovery from the Great Recession, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose to its new all-time high of 5,092.08 on April 24, up 301% from its 2009 low.

While the S&P 500 index has made real (inflation-adjusted) all-time highs in 2015, the Nasdaq Composite Index is a long way from setting an inflation-adjusted record. Using March 2000 and March 2015 Consumer Price Index data, the Nasdaq Composite Index would have to reach 6,701.65 just to match its 5,048.62 March 2000 all-time high on a real (inflation-adjusted) basis.

Posted 5/4/15 9:02am ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

When Will Fed Raise Rates?

The Federal Open Market Committee met most recently on March 17 and 18. Its policy statement released at the end of that meeting no longer referred to being “patient” on raising rates. But Fed Chair Janet Yellen emphasized in her press conference after the statement, “Just because we removed the word ‘patient’ from the statement doesn’t mean we’re going to be impatient ... In particular, this change does not mean that an increase will necessarily occur in June, although we can’t rule that out.”

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, in remarks Tuesday, March 31, at the Richmond Fed, said “... the case for raising rates will remain strong at the June meeting.” Lacker is considered to be hawkish on rates. He dissented at all eight FOMC meetings 2012 in favor of tighter monetary policy, but he has voted with the majority at both meetings held in 2015. Lacker rotated out of a voting position on the FOMC during 2013 and 2014.

On April 1, Dennis Lockhart, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, told reporters “The weakness of the first quarter got my attention. I still believe the factors are transitory. We will see a pick-up.” He feels an interest rate hike is likely in the June to September period. Lockhart is considered a centrist on the FOMC.

At the March 17-18 meeting, officials also cut their median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2015 to 0.625% from 1.125% in their December forecasts, leading many market participants to expect the FOMC’s rate “lift-off” to be in the fall rather than mid-year.

The FOMC will meet six more times this year in April, June, July, September, October, and December.

Posted 4/5/15 12:32pm ET in Economy | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Sets 64 New Highs in 2013

Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio had a banner year in 2013, setting 85 new bull market highs. Early on in those new bull market highs, on March 8, 2013, the Top Eight Model Portfolio hit a new all-time high, its first since June 23, 2008, and it went on to set a total of 64 new all-time highs in 2013.

In 2013, stocks put in their best year since way back in the dot-com bull market. On a total return basis, as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class, the S&P 500 Index gained 32.251% in 2013, the best it has done since it gained 33.628% on a total return basis in 1997.

The Nasdaq Composite Index had an even better year. On a total return basis, as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund, it gained 39.746% in 2013. It closed out 2013 at a bull market high, but not at an all-time high, which it set way back in 2000, shortly before the top blew off the dot-com bull market.

Topping both indexes, the Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 43.354% in 2013, its best yearly gain since a 76.892% burst in 1999 during the dot-com bull market.

Posted 2/17/14 9:06pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Sets New All Time High

On March 8, 2013, Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio set a new all time high, eclipsing the previous high it set on June 23, 2008. As of March 8, 2013, Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was valued at $218,123.44, up 44.915% from January, 2006, when Fidelity Select Fundranker was first published, and up a whopping 808.848% from its $24,000 valuation when we started the theoretical portfolio on January 2, 1997.

Coincidentally, March 8 also marked the end of the fourth year of the current bull market, which began after the March 9, 2009, market lows set at the end of the bear market precipitated by the Great Recession. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes both set new bull market highs, almost as if they wanted to commemorate the occasion.

Posted 3/8/13 9:22pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Stock Indexes vs. Total Return

We see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes on financial news every day, but did you know that they are calculated solely from the prices of their underlying stocks, do not include dividends, and thus do not show total return? That’s why we track Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class and Nasdaq Composite Index Fund to compare to Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio. That way, we can include dividends on both of those hypothetical tracking portfolios as well as our Top Eight Model Portfolio.

Now, let’s move to the financial news that you have not been seeing or hearing the last few months: The S&P 500 Index set a new all-time high on a total return basis on August 16, 2012, and it set several more all-time highs since then, most recently, as this blog entry is posted, on January 22, 2013. Get current quotes for symbol XX:SPXT at MarketWatch, or get historical quotes for symbol SPXT at BigCharts, a service of MarketWatch. MarketWatch started tracking this S&P 500 Total Return Index on March 30, 2009.

On a total return basis, the Nasdaq Composite Index surpassed the high it set in October, 2007, at the end of the previous bull market, over a year ago, on January 18, 2012. It also set numerous new highs since then, most recently on September 14, 2012. It has a long way to go, though, to reach the all-time highs it set back in 2000. Get current quotes for symbol XX:XCMP at MarketWatch, or get historical quotes for symbol XCMP at BigCharts. MarketWatch started tracking this Nasdaq Composite Total Return Index on September 21, 2009.

Posted 1/23/13 12:14pm ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

New Year, New Bull Market Highs

The bull market that began in March, 2009, is alive and well after nearly four years. Despite political fights past, present, and still to come, through January 17, the S&P 500 Index already set six new bull market highs for 2013. Apparently, economic fundamentals are trumping political wrangling. The S&P 500 Index set a new five-plus-year high on January 17, while the Nasdaq Composite Index set a new 12-plus-year high, and world markets set new 20-month highs.

Posted 1/18/13 2:01pm ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Aggressive Fed Stimulus

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System showed that its considerable concern over the struggling U.S. jobs situation outweighs political concerns by announcing another aggressive economic stimulus program today despite how close we are to the presidential election. The Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion of mortgage-related debt per month until the jobs outlook improves significantly as long as inflation remains in check.

The FOMC tied the Fed’s new stimulus program directly to economic conditions, stating "If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchase of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability."

In another show of concern over the health of the economy, the FOMC said "the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015." That extends from late 2014 their earlier low federal funds rate guidance.

Investors apparently approved the announcement wholeheartedly. The broad market S&P 500 Index was up 1.55% at 3:00pm today.

Posted 9/13/12 3:28pm ET in Economy, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Outlook for 2012

The New York Times published an excellent article on December 31 that gathers viewpoints from six leading economists on the economic outlook for 2012. Check it out here.

N. Gregory Mankiw wants the Federal Open Market Committee to offer even more clarity about its contingency plans.

Christina D. Romer calls for action to combat our unsustainable long-run budget deficit and persistent high unemployment.

Tyler Cowen forecasts that Europe won’t get out of its mess anytime soon and not without more pain.

Robert H. Frank discusses his “toil index” and growing income inequality.

Robert J. Schiller calls for a tax credit to fix our housing crisis.

Richard H. Thaler wants to nudge employers to make getting healthy easier and, in turn, to combat our health care spending crisis.

Posted 1/24/12 9:55am ET in Economy | Permalink | Comments (0)

Review of 2011 Performance

The bull market that began with recovery from the Great Recession charged into 2011, lifting markets and indexes to multi-year highs. The S&P 500 Index and the Top Eight Model Portfolio topped out at the end of April near their highs reached in October, 2007, in the final days of the bull market that preceded the Great Recession. The Nasdaq Composite Index surpassed its October, 2007, high in April, but it has a long, long way to go to reach its all-time high from March, 2000.

A multitude of international and domestic woes caused a five-month pullback that took a lot of steam out of the bull market and pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indexes as well as the Top Eight Model Portfolio into the red for 2011.

Improving economic data for the U.S. trumped further Euro zone problems over the last three months of 2011 and gave the bull market some renewed life. The S&P 500 Index scraped out a small gain for 2011. The Nasdaq Composite Index and the Top Eight Model Portfolio were slightly negative for the year.

Posted 1/10/12 10:40am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Greek Referendum

Prime Minister George A. Papandreou of Greece surprised the world by announcing that he would put Europe's latest rescue package for Greece to a referendum vote of the people. After being called to the carpet by European leaders, he announced on November 2 that the referendum would be held sooner rather than later, on December 4 or 5.

Prime Minister Papandreou's coalition government faces a no confidence vote on Friday that will be very close. His razor thin majority seems to be holding and even firmed up some recently after Papandreou's cabinet unanimously upheld his call for referendum. Even if Papandreou's coalition wins the no confidence vote, however, it is not clear whether the Greek parliament will pass the referendum.

World markets celebrated the announcement of the latest rescue package with large upswings, but the Greek referendum through a monkey wrench into its quick implementation. Investors now are faced with weeks of uncertainty in the European debt crisis. World markets reacted badly and promise to be roiled for some time.

Posted 11/3/11 11:05am ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

New Private Sector Jobs

The new ADP National Employment Report released November 2 shows an improvement, albeit small, in the jobs picture. Private U.S. employers added 110,000 jobs in October, higher than the 101,000 jobs that economists expected. In addition, the number of private sector jobs added in September was revised upward to 116,000 from 91,000 previously reported. A separate report showed that planned layoffs decreased significantly in October. These three positives are small in comparison to the overall dismal jobs picture, but they are at least a move in the right direction and a welcome sign that points toward an improving economy.

Posted 11/2/11 6:25pm ET in Economy | Permalink | Comments (0)

Health Care Overweighting

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio significantly increased its exposure to the health care sector over the last three months. We purchased Medical Delivery (FSHCX) in April, Health Care (FSPHX), Pharmaceuticals (FPHAX), and Biotechnology (FBIOX) in May, and Medical Equipment & Systems (FSMEX) in June. Fundranker now holds all five of Fidelity’s health care Select funds, and they account for over half of our Top Eight Model Portfolio.

While all 39 of Fidelity’s Select funds have lost ground in June, only three of three of them performed better than all five of our health care funds in month-to-date returns through June 21. Also through June 21, our five health care funds led 31 of the other Select funds in quarter-to-date returns and all of the other Select funds in 2011 year-to-date returns. It is easy to see why they have moved up into Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio.

So how will this overweighting play out in coming months? As of June 21, all five health care funds remain in the Top Eight and have a good chance of carrying through to July. While our politicians argue endlessly over how and even whether the Affordable Care Act, passed and signed into law over a year ago, should be implemented, it seems that the market is placing a vote of confidence in the outcome. We look for these funds to perform well for Fundranker.

Posted 6/21/11 10:10pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Six-Month Winning Streak

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio extended its most recent multi-month gain to six months—September, 2010, through February, 2011; unfortunately, it stopped there with a small loss for the month of March. During that six-month period, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 35.516%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class) gained only 32.150% and 27.662%, respectively.

See our Five-Month Winning Streak post for a table that shows all of Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index.

With this six-month upturn under its belt, a slight loss in March, and another gain in April, Fundranker rose 20 months during the 26-month bull market that started in March, 2009. Perhaps Fundranker will extend its bull market run with a gain in May and mark a new multi-month upturn, April to May, as well.

Over all of its 23 historical multi-month upturns, Fundranker gained an average of 22.169%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 12.461% on average. Over Fundranker’s 14 historical multi-month upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker gained an average of 18.108%; the Nasdaq Composite Index gained only 14.881% on average.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 4/29/11 12:24pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

April Bull Market Highs

As of April 26, both the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class) hit new bull market highs. The bull market that began in March, 2009, is now nearly 26 months old.

As of April 26, the Nasdaq Composite Index is up 127.648% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low, and it is up 2.219% from the high it reached on October 31, 2007, at the end of the preceding bull market.

As of April 26, the S&P 500 Index is up 107.581% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low, but it still is down 7.178% from the all-time high it reached on October 9, 2007, at the end of the preceding bull market.

As of April 26, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio is up 98.543% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low, but it still is down 11.712% from the all-time high it reached on June 23, 2008, a few months into the preceding bear market.

Posted 4/27/11 1:50pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Market Volatility Surges

With continuing unrest in the Middle East, the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and Japan’s continuing nuclear disaster, world stock markets have been particularly volatile from late February and through mid-April.

Through March 16, when markets hit lows for the current downturn, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class) was down 6.258% from its February 18 bull market high, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) was down 7.627% from its February 18 bull market high, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was down 8.720% from its February 17 bull market high.

During the last half of March, however, the stock market broke to the upside, regaining most of the above losses. As of March 31, the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio were down only 1.071%, 1.807%, and 2.222%, respectively, from their mid-February bull market highs.

In April, the market turned down again, especially today, April 18, with the S&P 500 down over 1.5% midday on new worries that include today’s downgrade of the United States’ credit outlook by Standard & Poors and increasing concerns that Greece will have to renegotiate terms of its public debt.

Posted 4/20/11 1:09pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Facebook Page

We have implemented a Fundranker Facebook Page, and we will be posting our blog entries there on the Notes Tab as well as on our Fundranker blog.

Posted 3/21/11 1:38pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Nasdaq Recoups Great Recession Losses

We track the performance of the Nasdaq Composite Index so that we can compare performance of Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio to it. The Nasdaq Composite Index itself is a price-only index, meaning it does not account for dividends paid by its underlying stocks, so we measure the Nasdaq Composite Index using Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund, which does include dividends, thereby giving us a total return rather than a price-only return for the Nasdaq Composite Index.

As of February 8 and 9, on a total return basis, our Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Portfolio, based on Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund, completely recouped the losses it incurred during the Great Recession. Our Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Portfolio stood at $57,472.15 as of October 31, 2007. It fell 55.1% to a low of $25,806.24 on March 9, 2009, during the Great Recession. On February 9, it stood at $57,489.51 for a gain of 122.8% from that March 9 low.

Note that calculations using the Nasdaq Composite Index itself, because it is a price-only index and does not account for dividends of its underlying stocks, give slightly different numbers for Great Recession losses and current bull market gains. The Nasdaq Composite Index stood at 2,859.12 on October 31, 2007, at the end of the previous bull market, at 1,268.64 at its March 9, 2009, Great Recession low, and at 2,789.07 on February 9. Using these figures, the Nasdaq Composite Index's price-only Great Recession loss was 55.6%, and its price-only bull market gain was 119.8%. As of February 9, the Nasdaq Composite Index lacked 70 points of regaining its 2007 high.

Posted 2/9/11 8:45pm ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Five-Month Winning Streak

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio extended its latest multi-month gain to five months—September, 2010, through January, 2011. The table below shows all of Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Apr 2010     3 19.803  14.838  11.021 
Sep/Jan 2011     5 30.390  28.109  23.460 

With its current five-month upturn, Fundranker rose 18 months during the 23-month bull market that started in March, 2009. Fundranker was up again through February 7; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker gained an average of 21.946%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 12.279% on average. Over the 14 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker gained an average of 17.742%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 14.593% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns December 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 2/7/11 8:50pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Bull Market: 22 Months and Counting

The bull market that started in March, 2009, is alive and well through December, 2010, and into January, 2011. From March 9, 2009, through January 7, 2011, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) gained 115.853%, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) gained 94.974%, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 83.297%:

22-Month Bull Market Chart

To put these phenomenal gains in some perspective, as of January 7, the Nasdaq Composite Index was 3.077% below the 2007 bull market high it reached on October 31, 2007, the S&P 500 Index was 12.816% below the all-time high it reached on October 9, 2007, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was 18.492% below the all-time high it reached on June 23, 2008.

Posted 1/8/11 1:15pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Snaps Back

During May and June, 2010, for the first time in the current, 22-month bull market, Fundranker added another multiple-month downturn, and it was pretty severe. In the six months since then, Fundranker snapped back, reaching new bull market highs in both December and January.

Through June, 2008, the Fundranker system bucked the bear market that started in November, 2007, but in the frantic market downturn that occurred during the last half of 2008 and January and February of 2009, it gave back those gains and then some. Fundranker has had multiple-month downturns only 16 times since 1997, when historical tracking of the Top Eight Model Portfolio began, and it has had only one multiple-month downturn during the current bull market. Here are Fundranker’s losses during those downturns along with its returns during the next three months, six months, and 12 months:

       Next 3  Next 6 Next 12
     Period Months    Loss Months Months Months
Feb/Mar 1997     2 (10.478) 17.993  37.309  49.620 
Jul/Aug 1998     2 (18.332) 24.203  46.650  83.587 
Mar/May 2000     3 (14.633) 20.863  7.140  9.806 
Sep/Nov 2000     3 (11.354) 0.224  2.488  (5.267)
Jan/Mar 2001     3 (9.739) 3.670  (7.140) 12.227 
Aug/Oct 2001     3 (12.200) 13.141  23.520  (1.727)
Jun/Jul 2002     2 (15.637) (6.615) (4.395) 7.475 
Sep/Oct 2002     2 (8.563) 2.377  (4.461) 33.218 
Dec/Mar 2003     4 (7.317) 15.114  23.719  45.021 
Mar/Apr 2004     2 (10.145) 1.538  8.246  16.784 
Jul/Aug 2004     2 (3.678) 14.696  24.092  40.048 
Mar/Apr 2005     2 (6.949) 17.081  20.887  50.482 
Jul/Aug 2006     2 (3.256) 4.659  5.865  16.990 
Jul/Nov 2008     5 (46.834) (9.347) 7.189  28.094 
Jan/Feb 2009     2 (16.832) 18.245  34.694  44.814 
May/Jun 2010     2 (16.526) 10.152  24.044 

The five-month downturn that began in July, 2008, was the first multiple-month downturn Fundranker had had for two years, and it is by far the worst and longest that Fundranker has suffered. As the Great Recession, the worst recession since the Great Depression, continued, Fundranker added another two-month downturn in January and February, 2009. As it did after many past multiple-month downturns, however, Fundranker was able to garner impressive returns over the following periods.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, you still can benefit from knowing that Fundranker almost always has gone on to better performance in the months that follow a multiple-month downturn. Let this knowledge boost your confidence in Fundranker. Stay disciplined, and stick with the Fundranker system.

Posted 1/6/11 4:51pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns December 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio added another month to its latest multi-month gain, now September through November, 2010. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Apr 2010     3 19.803  14.838  11.021 
Sep/Nov 2010     3 19.015  18.515  13.057 

With its current three-month upturn, Fundranker has risen 16 months during the 21-month-long bull market that started in March, 2009. Fundranker is up again through December 17; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.451%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 11.826% on average. Over the 14 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.929%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.907% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns November 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 12/18/10 8:38pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (2)

Fundranker Surpasses Nasdaq YTD

Four trading days into December, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio surpassed the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) for 2010 YTD gains. As of December 6, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 15.303% YTD compared to the Nasdaq’s 15.231% YTD gain. Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio last consistently led the Nasdaq Composite Index for 2010 YTD gains between mid-March and late June.

Year-to-Date 2010 Chart

Posted 12/07/10 12:06pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)