Fundranker Upturns May 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio extended its latest multi-month gain in April, 2010. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

With its current three-month upturn, Fundranker has risen 12 of the last 14 months from its March 9, 2009, low. Through May 12, Fundranker was near to breaking even; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.562%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 11.771% on average. Over the 13 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.769%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.553% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns April 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 5/13/10 9:59am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Stealth Nasdaq

Apparently, the Nasdaq Composite Index has slipped under the radar. Possibly because recovery from the Great Recession has been hard to see from Main Street, nobody seems to have noticed that, as of April 23, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) gained 100% since its Great Recession low on March 9, 2009. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) gained 84%, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 79%:

Posted 4/23/10 8:16pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns April 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio added another multi-month gain in February and March, 2010. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

With its current two-month upturn, Fundranker has risen 11 of the last 13 months from its March 9, 2009, low. Fundranker is up again through April 15; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.237%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 11.693% on average. Over the 13 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.371%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.326% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns January 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 4/15/10 9:14pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Gain on Technology Is Almost Long-Term

Fundranker has held Select Technology since 5/4/09, but it has fallen out of the Top Eight Model Portfolio for April and is due to be exchanged on April 5, just one month short of being considered long-term for federal income tax purposes.

If you hold Select Technology in a taxable account, and since we have gained nearly 50% on it to this point, you may want to consider holding it one more month so the gain can become long-term. If you wait until 5/5/10 to exchange your shares, you will have held them more than one year, and you’ll be able to take advantage of the lower, long-term, capital gain tax rates for 2010: 0% for the 10% and 15% brackets and 15% for higher brackets. Take special note that you have to hold your shares more than one year, so if you bought them on Fundranker's 5/4/09 exchange date, you must hold them until at least 5/5/10 to qualify for long-term.

Although one of Fundranker’s basic premises is to move each month without fail into the new set of Top Eight Model Portfolio funds, Select Technology only fell to number 13 in the rankings at the end of March, so you would not be fudging the system by much, and your tax advantages could be considerable. Also, it wouldn’t be much of a stretch for Select Technology to move back into the Top Eight Model Portfolio in May.

If you do decide to wait until May to sell your shares of Select Technology, then you would have three exchanges for April 5 instead of four:

• Sell Communications Equipment (FSDCX), buy new number four ranked fund
• Sell Retailing (FSRPX), buy new number five ranked fund
• Sell Electronics (FSELX), buy new number seven ranked fund

With these exchanges, you would end up holding Select Technology at least another month, and you would not buy the new number eight ranked fund. For the names and symbols of these new top-ranked funds, see the April 2010 newsletter, which was emailed to subscribers on April 1.

Posted 4/2/10 12:15pm ET in Fundranker, Tax Tips | Permalink | Comments (0)

Method 1 Rebalancing

The Fundranker system is based on allocating your investments equally across all eight funds in the Top Eight Model Portfolio. We discuss three methods you can use to rebalance your portfolio on our FAQ page. In this post, we’ll discuss Method 1 further. See our posts on Method 2 and Method 3 for further examples.

It is important to note that Method 1 two-day rebalancing involves selling all of your funds, so consider tax consequences before you use it to balance your taxable accounts. You will realize whatever capital gains or losses your funds have made since you bought them. You may decide that leaving your taxable funds less balanced is better than realizing capital gains earlier than necessary.

Method 1 two-day rebalancing opportunities occur when a Fundranker exchange date falls such that it is at least 30 days after the previous exchange date and at least 31 days before the earliest possible exchange date for the next month, thus avoiding roundtrip transactions. This may happen in August, September, or December in 2010, depending on Fundranker’s exchange dates in July, August, and November. Here is an example of Method 1 two-day rebalancing:

Let’s assume that Fundranker exchanges on July 2, 2010. To rebalance using Method 1, on August 2, 2010, you would exchange all eight of your funds to Fidelity Select Money Market. Then on August 3, 2010, you would divide the amount you have in Fidelity Select Money Market by eight and exchange that amount into each of the funds in the Top Eight Model Portfolio for August. At Fidelity Investments, on your first seven exchanges, enter the dollar amount to exchange. On the eighth exchange, to exchange the last 1/8, select Sell all Shares, which, in this case, actually means the remaining shares after the first seven exchanges.

Although Method 1 two-day balancing opportunities only happen occasionally, note that you can rebalance your funds completely when you take advantage of this method.

Posted 3/30/10 5:40pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Method 2 Rebalancing

The Fundranker system is based on allocating your investments equally across all eight funds in the Top Eight Model Portfolio. We discuss three methods you can use to rebalance your portfolio on our FAQ page. In this post, we’ll discuss Method 2 further. See our posts on Method 1 and Method 3 for further examples.

It is important to note that Method 2 rebalancing involves selling shares from some of your funds that you would not be exchanging otherwise, so consider tax consequences before you use it to balance your taxable accounts. You will realize whatever capital gains or losses those shares have made since you bought them. You may decide that leaving your taxable funds less balanced is better than realizing capital gains earlier than necessary.

Method 2 rebalancing opportunities occur when the earliest possible Fundranker exchange date for a month falls at least 30 days before the earliest possible exchange date for the next month. This will happen next on June 2, 2010. Here is an example of Method 2 rebalancing:

Let’s assume that, as of the close on June 1, 2010, you hold the following:

First, on June 2, 2010, calculate your goal amount to balance your funds: (3,500 + 2,700 + 3,200 + 3,800 + 4,100 + 2,900 + 4,000 + 3,000) / 8 = 3,400

Second, determine which funds you can exchange from. Funds 1, 2, 4, 6, and 7 will have been held at least 30 days as of June 2, thus avoiding roundtrip transactions. Of those, Funds 1, 4, and 7 are above your goal amount. Fidelity won’t let you exchange less than $250, which leaves only Funds 4 and 7 from which to exchange.

Third, determine which funds you can exchange to. Let’s assume that Funds 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 did not fall out of the Top Eight Model Portfolio and won’t be exchanged in June. Of those, Funds 3, 6, and 8 are below your goal amount. Fidelity won’t let you exchange less than $250, which leaves only Funds 6 and 8 to which to exchange.

Finally, enter your balancing exchanges at Fidelity Investments. Before 4pm ET on June 2, exchange $400 from Fund 4 to Fund 8 and $500 from Fund 7 to Fund 6.

Note that although you usually will rebalance only part of your funds using Method 2, it still helps bring your funds closer to being balanced, and you can repeat it frequently.

Posted 3/30/10 5:40pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Method 3 Rebalancing

The Fundranker system is based on allocating your investments equally across all eight funds in the Top Eight Model Portfolio. We discuss three methods you can use to rebalance your portfolio on our FAQ page. In this post, we’ll discuss Method 3 further. See our posts on Method 1 and Method 2 for further examples.

It is important to note that Method 3 rebalancing involves selling shares from some of your funds that you may not be exchanging otherwise, so consider tax consequences before you use it to balance your taxable accounts. You will realize whatever capital gains or losses those shares have made since you bought them. You may decide that leaving your taxable funds less balanced is better than realizing capital gains earlier than necessary.

Method 3 rebalancing opportunities occur every month on the Fundranker exchange date. Here is an example of Method 3 rebalancing for our upcoming April 5, 2010, exchange date:

Let’s assume that, as of the close on April 1, 2010, you hold the following:

First, on April 5, 2010, calculate your goal amount to balance your funds: (5,500 + 6,500 + 7,100 + 5,400 + 6,100 + 7,200 + 5,100 + 6,700) / 8 = 6,200

Second, determine which funds you can exchange from. All of your funds will have been held at least 30 days as of April 5, thus avoiding roundtrip transactions. For this example, let’s assume you are balancing funds in an IRA account (see the Fundranker blog post about Fidelity minimum initial investments). FSRFX, FSPTX, and FSELX are at least $500 above your goal amount.

Third, determine which funds you can exchange to. For this example, let’s assume that FSDCX, FSPTX, FSRPX, and FSELX fell out of the Top Eight Model Portfolio and will be exchanged to new funds on April 5. Only FSRPX is more than $500 below your goal amount.

Fourth, enter your balancing exchanges at Fidelity Investments. Before 4pm ET on April 5, exchange $1,000 from FSPTX to the new fund for FSRPX.

Finally, also enter your regular exchanges at Fidelity Investments before 4pm ET on April 5. When you enter your exchange from FSPTX to its replacement, Fidelity will warn you that you already have an outstanding exchange for FSPTX, which is okay—it’s your balancing exchange from step four. One of your regular exchanges will be from FSRPX to its replacement. Fidelity automatically will combine your balancing and regular exchanges to the replacement fund for FSRPX into one position.

Note that although you usually will rebalance only part of your funds using Method 3, it still helps bring your funds closer to being balanced, and you can repeat it frequently.

Posted 3/30/10 5:40pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Multiple-Month Downturns

Through June, 2008, the Fundranker system bucked the bear market that started in November, 2007, but in the frantic market downturn during the last half of 2008 and January and February of 2009, it gave back those gains and then some. Fundranker has had multiple-month downturns only 15 times since 1997, when historical tracking of the Top Eight Model Portfolio began, and it has not had any multiple-month downturns during the recent, year-long, bull market. Here are Fundranker’s losses during those downturns along with its returns during the next three months, six months, and 12 months:

The five-month downturn that began in July, 2008, was the first multiple-month downturn Fundranker had had for two years, and it is by far the worst and longest that Fundranker has suffered. As the Great Recession, the worst recession since the Great Depression, continued, Fundranker added another two-month downturn in January and February, 2009. As it did after many past multiple-month downturns, however, Fundranker was able to garner impressive returns over the following periods.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, you still can benefit from knowing that Fundranker almost always has gone on to better performance in the months that follow a multiple-month downturn. Let this knowledge boost your confidence in Fundranker. Stay disciplined, and stick with the Fundranker system.

Posted 3/25/10 10:19am ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

One Year

At the depths of the Great Recession, when the market reached 12-year lows on March 9, 2009, despair seemed to be overwhelming. Then a market rally started, and hope returned, or maybe it was the other way around. Despite many calls for the market to test new lows, it never really did. You can see from the chart below that the market did turn down significantly three times over the last year, but always recovered.

As of March 9, 2010, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) reached a new high for the year-long bull market, while the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio were tantalizingly close to highs they reached in January.

After Fundranker, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 54.1%, 54.9%, and 55.1%, respectively, during the bear market that lasted from November 1, 2007, through March 9, 2009, they gained 61.5%, 72.8%, and 85.7%, respectively, during the year which ended March 9, 2010:

Posted 3/10/10 10:02am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

2009 Qualified Dividends

Fidelity shows qualified dividends paid on funds in a taxable account at www.fidelity.com and on 2009 Form 1099-DIV. These dividends are from companies the funds held for the required holding periods to qualify as qualified dividends. In addition to meeting the holding period within the fund, however, you also have to hold your fund shares for the required holding period for your dividends to be qualified. To pass the qualified dividend holding period test, you must hold your fund shares for a period of at least 61 days, which can precede, straddle, or follow the ex-date of the dividend.

Fidelity paid dividends on several funds in Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio in April and December, 2009. Here is a list of those dividends, ex-dates, days Fundranker held shares in the funds, and whether those days pass the qualified dividends holding test:

Assuming you bought and sold the above funds on Fundranker exchange dates, the bottom line here is that you should claim dividends that Fidelity reports as qualified for Gold, Materials, Pharmaceuticals, and Telecommunications as qualified dividends, but not those that Fidelity reports as qualified for Chemicals, Electronics, or Multimedia.

If you bought and sold the above funds on dates other than Fundranker exchange dates, or if you held, in a taxable account, other Fidelity funds which paid qualified dividends, you’ll need to calculate your own holding periods to determine whether the dividends Fidelity reports as qualified are truly qualified.

Posted 3/03/10 11:20am ET in Fidelity Investments, Fundranker, Tax Tips | Permalink | Comments (0)

S&P 500 Tracking Portfolio Change

For comparison purposes, Fidelity Select Fundranker tracks the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) with a theoretical portfolio which we started on January 2, 1997, with a value of $24,000. We recently made a change to this theoretical portfolio because of a change at Fidelity Investments.

As of the close of trading on January 22, 2010, Fidelity Investments merged its Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund (FSMKX) into its Spartan US Equity Fund (FUSEX). Beginning January 25, 2010, the newly merged fund retains the name Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund but uses the FUSEX trading symbol. Because of this merger and use of the FUSEX symbol, as of January 22, 2010, we adjusted the number of shares we list for our S&P 500 Index theoretical tracking portfolio from 582.597 (of FSMKX, NAV $75.29 on 1/22/10) to 1,135.190 (equivalent shares of FUSEX, NAV $38.64 on 1/22/10). See our December 2009 and January 2010 results pages to review these changes.

Posted 2/19/10 8:59pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Gets Published!

Fundranker’s editor recently wrote three articles that will be published soon on the nationally known Free Money Finance blog: Education Tax Credits for 2009, Making Work Pay Tax Credit for 2009 and 2010, and Unrelated Dependent. The two tax credit articles will be published together in one post on Free Money Finance, and the Unrelated Dependent article will be published separately. Tune into Free Money Finance on February 3 and 6 to see these articles.

Posted 2/2/10 11:54am ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns January 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio added another multi-month gain in November and December, 2009. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

Fundranker’s current two-month upturn culminated a nine-out-of-10-month upward run from March 9 lows for 2009. Fundranker is up again through January 14, so perhaps it will extend its rally run still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.646%; the S&P 500 gained only 11.806% on average. Over the 12 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.516%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.446% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns October Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Posted 1/14/10 3:23pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally Report

What a difference 10 months makes. When the market hit Great Recession lows on March 9, 2009, things couldn’t have looked much bleaker. Even as the market began to recover some of the immense losses of 2008 and early 2009, financial pundits kept calling for it to retest its lows, which still has not happened.

Indeed, the American Association of Individual Investors reported this week that 38% of surveyed members were bullish on the stock market in the short term, up from 19% in early March, but lower than the 51% reported last August, and significantly lower than the 58% level reached in the latter stages of the bull market in 2007. Considering these readings as a contrarian indicator suggests the market rally has room to run in 2010, as the bulls have not yet started to stampede.

As of December 31, 2009, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund), and the Top Eight Model Portfolio were up 79.8%, 67.8%, and 58.6%, respectively, from their March 9, 2009, lows.

Posted 1/2/10 12:54pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Four Years of Publication

With the December, 2009, issue, Fidelity Select Fundranker has completed its fourth year of publication. From January, 2006, through November, 2009, the Top Eight Model Portfolio lost 3.317%, while the S&P 500 Index (as tracked by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (as tracked by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) lost 4.685% and 0.214%, respectively.

From January, 2006 through June, 2008, when the Top Eight Model Portfolio made its all-time high, it gained 41.969%. From January, 2006, through February, 2009, shortly before its March 9, 2009, Great Recession low, the Top Eight Model Portfolio fell 31.579%.

In contrast, from January, 2006, through October, 2007, when the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 Indexes made their all-time highs, they gained 30.893% and 28.218%, respectively. From January, 2006, through February, 2009, shortly before their March 9, 2009, Great Recession lows, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 Indexes fell 36.191% and 37.163%, respectively.

From March, 2009, through November, 2009, the Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 29.383%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 40.869%, and the S&P 500 Index gained 39.447%.

Posted 12/3/09 7:25pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

November Surge Renews 2009 Rally

As of Wednesday, November 11, the market rose seven of the eight trading sessions to that point in November, giving new life to the 2009 rally that began last March. On November 11, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Spartan 500 Index Fund) closed at a new rally high, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio closed 0.4% and 3.3%, respectively, below their values on October 19, when recent rally highs were set.

From recent rally highs of October 19, through October 30, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.6%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 6.0%, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio fell 9.7%. You can see that a good portion of this late October downturn has been recouped in the early November surge.

To give some perspective to the rally the market has enjoyed since March 9, consider these numbers. From October 31, 2007, market highs through March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 Index fell 54.8%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 55.1%, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio fell 54.1%. To completely recover from March 9, 2009, lows to their October 31, 2007, values, the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio would have to gain 121.5%, 122.7%, and 117.9%, respectively. Well, since March 9, they have gained 64.8%, 71.3%, and 52.9%, respectively, which are fantastic gains for an eight-month period, but you can see they have a long way still to go.

Posted 11/11/09 9:15pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns October Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained ground again in September, tying its seven-months-in-a-row record from May, 2002. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by the Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

Fundranker’s current seven-month upturn of 42.376% places third in the list by percentage gain. Fundranker is up again so far in October, so perhaps we'll get to add another month to this upturn to break our seven-month record.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 22.223%; the S&P 500 gained only 11.994% on average. Over the 11 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker now has an average gain of 17.099%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.646% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns September Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Posted 10/23/09 2:43pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Average Monthly Returns

Fidelity Select Fundranker has monitored Nasdaq Composite Index performance (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) since October, 2003 and S&P 500 Index performance (as measured by Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) since January, 1997. For October, 2003, through August, 2009, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio and the Nasdaq Composite Index both had five months with negative average returns. For January, 1997, through August, 2009, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio had only three months with negative average returns, while the S&P 500 Index had five months with negative average returns. Here’s a chart of average returns that compares Fundranker’s average monthly returns to those of the Nasdaq Composite Index over nearly six years from October, 2003, through August, 2009, and Fundranker’s average monthly returns to those of the S&P 500 Index over nearly 13 years from January, 1997, through August, 2009:

Fundranker outperformed the Nasdaq Composite Index for only four of 12 months, but its average monthly return over the nearly six-year period topped that of the Nasdaq Composite Index by a little. Fundranker outperformed the S&P 500 Index for eight of 12 months, and its average monthly return over the nearly 13-year period was significantly better that of the S&P 500 Index.

Posted 9/20/09 7:58pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

September Surge

Yardeni Research reports that, going back to 1926, September is the only month with a negative average return. Well, September made an exception through the first half of the month this year; the market rose seven of 10 trading days through September 15. Over that time period, Fundranker's Top Eight Model Portfolio outperformed the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund):

Posted 9/16/09 10:23am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns September Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio has gone up another month since we last reviewed Fundranker’s upturns. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by the Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

Fundranker’s current upturn of six months is just one month short of our record upturn of seven months and places third in the list by percentage gain. Fundranker is up again so far in September, so perhaps we'll get to add another month to this upturn to match our seven-month record. September, a historically poor month for the stock market, has only been part of three previous Fundranker upturns.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.838%; the S&P 500 gained only 11.732% on average. Over the 11 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.399%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 12.899% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns August Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Posted 9/10/09 8:25pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally vs. Bull Market

The rally that started from the market low reached on March 9, 2009, is still going strong. When does it become a bull market? The answer is subjective and hard to pin down, but it generally calls for a prolonged period of rising stock prices. This rally has lasted nearly six months, but that is rather short compared to previous well-known bull markets. On the other hand, the stock market has increased dramatically in the five plus months since March 9. As of August 24, 2009, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio were up 59.5%, 53.3%, and 43.0%, respectively, since March 9.

There are several promising signs that this rally could continue. Consumer confidence rose more than expected in August, the housing sector is showing signs of improvement, the automotive sector just got a huge shot in the arm with the Cash for Clunkers program, unemployment dipped in July, and monthly job losses in July came in at 247,000, the fewest in a year.

Posted 8/25/09 3:39pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns August Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio has gone up another couple of months since we last reviewed Fundranker’s upturns. The table below shows Fundranker’s gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by the Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.669%; the S&P 500 gained only 11.487% on average. Over the 11 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.092%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 11.487% on average. See our June post about Fundranker Upturns for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Posted 8/15/09 11:25am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally Resumes

The spring rally we enjoyed, after pausing for four weeks, has turned into a summer rally. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 11 sessions in a row through July 22, 2009, hitting new rally highs every day since July 15. The S&P 500 rose seven sessions in a row through July 21, hitting new rally highs on July 20 and 21. Fundranker nearly matched the Nasdaq Composite, climbing 10 sessions in a row through July 22, finally hitting a new rally high that day.

As of July 22, the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio are up 52.1%, 42.3%, and 35.2%, respectively, since the bear market lows of March 9.

Investors apparently are pleased with second quarter earnings and future outlooks companies have been reporting recently. Although economic indicators are mixed at best, the stock market seems to be fulfilling its roll as an advance indicator of economic recovery.

Posted 7/23/09 11:15am ET in Economy, Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rally Pauses Four Weeks

The spring rally we enjoyed has gone on pause the last four weeks. After hitting rally highs during the week ended June 12, 2009, the Nasdaq Composite and Fundranker fell three of the last four weeks, and the S&P 500 fell all four weeks. As of July 10, the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio are still up 38.6%, 31.0%, and 20.1%, respectively, for the rally since March 9, but they are down 5.5%, 7.0%, and 9.6%, respectively, since June 12.

Second quarter earnings season is upon us and quickly will tell us if and how much the economy and individual companies are beginning to recover from the recession. Given the past four weeks action in the stock market, investors clearly want to see some improvement before buying into the rally again. Several key companies will report earnings this week: Yum Brands Inc. (owns KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell), IBM Corp., Marriott International Inc., Harley-Davidson Inc., and Bank of America Corp. Earnings reports from these companies will provide investors with penetrating looks at just how much the economy is beginning to recover.

Posted 7/12/09 11:38am ET in Economy, Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

FNINX, FSPFX Close Permanently

Fidelity’s Select Networking & Infrastructure and Select Paper & Forest Products closed permanently on June 19, 2009. As of that date, Select Networking & Infrastructure was merged into Select Communications Equipment (FSDCX), while Select Paper & Forest Products was merged into Select Materials (FSDPX), both of which are in the Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio this month. Shareholders of the two closed funds were issued equivalent shares of Select Communications Equipment and Select Materials.

Select Communications Equipment is doing well so far in June, and it looks like it will remain in the Top Eight Model Portfolio for July. Select Materials has fallen out of the Top Eight Model Portfolio and most likely will be exchanged in July.

We will be updating the Fundranker website soon to reflect this change in Fidelity’s Select Fund offerings.

Posted 6/25/09 10:00am ET in Fidelity Investments, Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)