Fidelity Select Fundranker

Fundranker Blog—Fundranker Category—Page 1

Upcoming Fidelity Fund Name Changes

Fidelity Investments will change the names of two Select funds as of January 1, 2016. Select Software & Computer Services (FSCSX) will become Select Software & IT Services. Select Medical Delivery (FSHCX) will become Select Health Care Services. The ticker symbols for the funds will not change. Fidelity Select Fundranker will note these changes in its January 2016 issue.

In particular, because the funds do not officially change names until January 1, 2016, our December 31 ratings and performance pages included in the January 2016 issue will not reflect the new names. However, if either of the funds are listed in the January 2016 Top Eight Model Portfolio or in exchanges for January 2016, the new names will be reflected. Beginning with our February 2016 issue, the new names will be used throughout the issue.

Historical information prior to 2016 in our online newsletter archive and on our online ratings, results, and portfolio pages still will reflect the old names for these Select funds. Going forward, of course, new newsletter issues added to our online newsletter archive and new ratings, results, and portfolio pages uploaded to our website will reflect the new names.

Posted 12/6/15 10:31am ET in Fidelity Investments, Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Sets 64 New Highs in 2013

Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio had a banner year in 2013, setting 85 new bull market highs. Early on in those new bull market highs, on March 8, 2013, the Top Eight Model Portfolio hit a new all-time high, its first since June 23, 2008, and it went on to set a total of 64 new all-time highs in 2013.

In 2013, stocks put in their best year since way back in the dot-com bull market. On a total return basis, as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class, the S&P 500 Index gained 32.251% in 2013, the best it has done since it gained 33.628% on a total return basis in 1997.

The Nasdaq Composite Index had an even better year. On a total return basis, as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund, it gained 39.746% in 2013. It closed out 2013 at a bull market high, but not at an all-time high, which it set way back in 2000, shortly before the top blew off the dot-com bull market.

Topping both indexes, the Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 43.354% in 2013, its best yearly gain since a 76.892% burst in 1999 during the dot-com bull market.

Posted 2/17/14 9:06pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Sets New All Time High

On March 8, 2013, Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio set a new all time high, eclipsing the previous high it set on June 23, 2008. As of March 8, 2013, Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was valued at $218,123.44, up 44.915% from January, 2006, when Fidelity Select Fundranker was first published, and up a whopping 808.848% from its $24,000 valuation when we started the theoretical portfolio on January 2, 1997.

Coincidentally, March 8 also marked the end of the fourth year of the current bull market, which began after the March 9, 2009, market lows set at the end of the bear market precipitated by the Great Recession. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes both set new bull market highs, almost as if they wanted to commemorate the occasion.

Posted 3/8/13 9:22pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Review of 2011 Performance

The bull market that began with recovery from the Great Recession charged into 2011, lifting markets and indexes to multi-year highs. The S&P 500 Index and the Top Eight Model Portfolio topped out at the end of April near their highs reached in October, 2007, in the final days of the bull market that preceded the Great Recession. The Nasdaq Composite Index surpassed its October, 2007, high in April, but it has a long, long way to go to reach its all-time high from March, 2000.

A multitude of international and domestic woes caused a five-month pullback that took a lot of steam out of the bull market and pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indexes as well as the Top Eight Model Portfolio into the red for 2011.

Improving economic data for the U.S. trumped further Euro zone problems over the last three months of 2011 and gave the bull market some renewed life. The S&P 500 Index scraped out a small gain for 2011. The Nasdaq Composite Index and the Top Eight Model Portfolio were slightly negative for the year.

Posted 1/10/12 10:40am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Health Care Overweighting

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio significantly increased its exposure to the health care sector over the last three months. We purchased Medical Delivery (FSHCX) in April, Health Care (FSPHX), Pharmaceuticals (FPHAX), and Biotechnology (FBIOX) in May, and Medical Equipment & Systems (FSMEX) in June. Fundranker now holds all five of Fidelity’s health care Select funds, and they account for over half of our Top Eight Model Portfolio.

While all 39 of Fidelity’s Select funds have lost ground in June, only three of three of them performed better than all five of our health care funds in month-to-date returns through June 21. Also through June 21, our five health care funds led 31 of the other Select funds in quarter-to-date returns and all of the other Select funds in 2011 year-to-date returns. It is easy to see why they have moved up into Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio.

So how will this overweighting play out in coming months? As of June 21, all five health care funds remain in the Top Eight and have a good chance of carrying through to July. While our politicians argue endlessly over how and even whether the Affordable Care Act, passed and signed into law over a year ago, should be implemented, it seems that the market is placing a vote of confidence in the outcome. We look for these funds to perform well for Fundranker.

Posted 6/21/11 10:10pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Six-Month Winning Streak

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio extended its most recent multi-month gain to six months—September, 2010, through February, 2011; unfortunately, it stopped there with a small loss for the month of March. During that six-month period, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 35.516%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class) gained only 32.150% and 27.662%, respectively.

See our Five-Month Winning Streak post for a table that shows all of Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index.

With this six-month upturn under its belt, a slight loss in March, and another gain in April, Fundranker rose 20 months during the 26-month bull market that started in March, 2009. Perhaps Fundranker will extend its bull market run with a gain in May and mark a new multi-month upturn, April to May, as well.

Over all of its 23 historical multi-month upturns, Fundranker gained an average of 22.169%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 12.461% on average. Over Fundranker’s 14 historical multi-month upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker gained an average of 18.108%; the Nasdaq Composite Index gained only 14.881% on average.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 4/29/11 12:24pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

April Bull Market Highs

As of April 26, both the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class) hit new bull market highs. The bull market that began in March, 2009, is now nearly 26 months old.

As of April 26, the Nasdaq Composite Index is up 127.648% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low, and it is up 2.219% from the high it reached on October 31, 2007, at the end of the preceding bull market.

As of April 26, the S&P 500 Index is up 107.581% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low, but it still is down 7.178% from the all-time high it reached on October 9, 2007, at the end of the preceding bull market.

As of April 26, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio is up 98.543% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low, but it still is down 11.712% from the all-time high it reached on June 23, 2008, a few months into the preceding bear market.

Posted 4/27/11 1:50pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Market Volatility Surges

With continuing unrest in the Middle East, the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and Japan’s continuing nuclear disaster, world stock markets have been particularly volatile from late February and through mid-April.

Through March 16, when markets hit lows for the current downturn, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class) was down 6.258% from its February 18 bull market high, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) was down 7.627% from its February 18 bull market high, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was down 8.720% from its February 17 bull market high.

During the last half of March, however, the stock market broke to the upside, regaining most of the above losses. As of March 31, the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio were down only 1.071%, 1.807%, and 2.222%, respectively, from their mid-February bull market highs.

In April, the market turned down again, especially today, April 18, with the S&P 500 down over 1.5% midday on new worries that include today’s downgrade of the United States’ credit outlook by Standard & Poors and increasing concerns that Greece will have to renegotiate terms of its public debt.

Posted 4/20/11 1:09pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Facebook Page

We have implemented a Fundranker Facebook Page, and we will be posting our blog entries there on the Notes Tab as well as on our Fundranker blog.

Posted 3/21/11 1:38pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Five-Month Winning Streak

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio extended its latest multi-month gain to five months—September, 2010, through January, 2011. The table below shows all of Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Apr 2010     3 19.803  14.838  11.021 
Sep/Jan 2011     5 30.390  28.109  23.460 

With its current five-month upturn, Fundranker rose 18 months during the 23-month bull market that started in March, 2009. Fundranker was up again through February 7; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker gained an average of 21.946%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 12.279% on average. Over the 14 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker gained an average of 17.742%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 14.593% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns December 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 2/7/11 8:50pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Bull Market: 22 Months and Counting

The bull market that started in March, 2009, is alive and well through December, 2010, and into January, 2011. From March 9, 2009, through January 7, 2011, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) gained 115.853%, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) gained 94.974%, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 83.297%:

22-Month Bull Market Chart

To put these phenomenal gains in some perspective, as of January 7, the Nasdaq Composite Index was 3.077% below the 2007 bull market high it reached on October 31, 2007, the S&P 500 Index was 12.816% below the all-time high it reached on October 9, 2007, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was 18.492% below the all-time high it reached on June 23, 2008.

Posted 1/8/11 1:15pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Snaps Back

During May and June, 2010, for the first time in the current, 22-month bull market, Fundranker added another multiple-month downturn, and it was pretty severe. In the six months since then, Fundranker snapped back, reaching new bull market highs in both December and January.

Through June, 2008, the Fundranker system bucked the bear market that started in November, 2007, but in the frantic market downturn that occurred during the last half of 2008 and January and February of 2009, it gave back those gains and then some. Fundranker has had multiple-month downturns only 16 times since 1997, when historical tracking of the Top Eight Model Portfolio began, and it has had only one multiple-month downturn during the current bull market. Here are Fundranker’s losses during those downturns along with its returns during the next three months, six months, and 12 months:

       Next 3  Next 6 Next 12
     Period Months    Loss Months Months Months
Feb/Mar 1997     2 (10.478) 17.993  37.309  49.620 
Jul/Aug 1998     2 (18.332) 24.203  46.650  83.587 
Mar/May 2000     3 (14.633) 20.863  7.140  9.806 
Sep/Nov 2000     3 (11.354) 0.224  2.488  (5.267)
Jan/Mar 2001     3 (9.739) 3.670  (7.140) 12.227 
Aug/Oct 2001     3 (12.200) 13.141  23.520  (1.727)
Jun/Jul 2002     2 (15.637) (6.615) (4.395) 7.475 
Sep/Oct 2002     2 (8.563) 2.377  (4.461) 33.218 
Dec/Mar 2003     4 (7.317) 15.114  23.719  45.021 
Mar/Apr 2004     2 (10.145) 1.538  8.246  16.784 
Jul/Aug 2004     2 (3.678) 14.696  24.092  40.048 
Mar/Apr 2005     2 (6.949) 17.081  20.887  50.482 
Jul/Aug 2006     2 (3.256) 4.659  5.865  16.990 
Jul/Nov 2008     5 (46.834) (9.347) 7.189  28.094 
Jan/Feb 2009     2 (16.832) 18.245  34.694  44.814 
May/Jun 2010     2 (16.526) 10.152  24.044 

The five-month downturn that began in July, 2008, was the first multiple-month downturn Fundranker had had for two years, and it is by far the worst and longest that Fundranker has suffered. As the Great Recession, the worst recession since the Great Depression, continued, Fundranker added another two-month downturn in January and February, 2009. As it did after many past multiple-month downturns, however, Fundranker was able to garner impressive returns over the following periods.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, you still can benefit from knowing that Fundranker almost always has gone on to better performance in the months that follow a multiple-month downturn. Let this knowledge boost your confidence in Fundranker. Stay disciplined, and stick with the Fundranker system.

Posted 1/6/11 4:51pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns December 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio added another month to its latest multi-month gain, now September through November, 2010. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Apr 2010     3 19.803  14.838  11.021 
Sep/Nov 2010     3 19.015  18.515  13.057 

With its current three-month upturn, Fundranker has risen 16 months during the 21-month-long bull market that started in March, 2009. Fundranker is up again through December 17; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.451%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 11.826% on average. Over the 14 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.929%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.907% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns November 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 12/18/10 8:38pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (2)

Fundranker Surpasses Nasdaq YTD

Four trading days into December, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio surpassed the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) for 2010 YTD gains. As of December 6, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 15.303% YTD compared to the Nasdaq’s 15.231% YTD gain. Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio last consistently led the Nasdaq Composite Index for 2010 YTD gains between mid-March and late June.

Year-to-Date 2010 Chart

Posted 12/07/10 12:06pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Hits Bull Market High

Three trading days into December, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio did what it has been unable to do since April 23: set another bull market high. As of December 3, it was up 0.769% from April 23, 4.236% in December, 15.054% 2010 YTD, and 80.857% for the bull market from its March 9, 2009, low.

Posted 12/04/10 1:44pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Strong December Start

The market surged over the first two trading days of December, sending the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) up 3.268% to another bull market high.

The two-day surge sent the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) up 3.481%, but the index remained down a fraction of a percent from its November 5 bull market high.

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 3.391% over the first two trading days, putting it just a tiny fraction of a percent below its April 23 bull market high. The Top Eight Model Portfolio was not able to top its April 23 bull market high in November, but December’s strong two-day start put it ever so close.

Posted 12/02/10 11:59pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

New Bull Market Highs

After the last few dismal days for the market, it seems like a good time to review the market surge in early November. At its November 8 bull market high, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) was up 2.472% in November, 14.433% YTD, and 105.748% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low.

At its November 5 bull market high, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) was up 1.785% in November, 11.369% YTD, and 87.237% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low.

As of its November high on November 8 (not quite a new bull market high), Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was up 4.390% in November, 11.575% YTD, and 77.334% from its March 9, 2009, bear market low.

To put these amazing returns in some perspective, note that, as of their November highs, the Nasdaq Composite Index was down only 7.615% from its previous bull market high reached on October 31, 2007, the S&P 500 Index was still down 15.461% from its previous bull market high, also reached on October 31, 2007, and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio was still down 18.634% from October 31, 2007, and 21.143% from the all time high it reached on June 23, 2008, part way into the bear market caused by the Great Recession.

Posted 11/18/10 10:06am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns November 2010 Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio added another multi-month gain in September and October, 2010. The table below shows Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Apr 2010     3 19.803  14.838  11.021 
Sep/Oct 2010     2 16.524  18.763  13.030 

With its current two-month upturn, Fundranker has risen 15 months during the 20-month-long bull market that started in March, 2009. Fundranker is up again through November 8; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.343%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 11.825% on average. Over the 14 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.751%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 13.925% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns May 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 11/9/10 11:18am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

September Record

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio had its best September gain this year since its inception in January, 1997. It gained 10.554%, also hitting the number 10 spot on the Top Eight Model Portfolio’s Ten Best Months list:

1. 2/2000 25.635%
2. 12/1999 21.159%
3. 12/1998 13.445%
4. 6/2000 13.011%
5. 1/2006 12.835%
6. 8/2000 12.601%
7. 1/1999 11.490%
8. 10/2003 11.191%
9. 7/1997 10.606%
10. 9/2010 10.554%

As you can see, it’s pretty difficult for a month’s gain to make the Ten Best Months list. Fundranker has had some pretty dramatic one-month gains. At this point, Fundranker would have to gain somewhat over 10%, which would satisfy many investors as a yearly gain, in just one month to add a new top 10 month.

Posted 10/7/10 9:53am ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

September Surge 2010

The stock market turned dramatically higher during the first 13 trading days of September. Through September 20, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio, and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) had September gains of 11.514%, 9.520%, and 8.988%, respectively.

Through September 20, both the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index moved into the black for 2010 YTD, as well, with YTD gains of 3.797% and 4.357%, respectively, and moved out of correction territory with losses of 5.310% and 6.552%, respectively, since their April 23 bull market highs.

Through September 20, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio also moved into the black for 2010 YTD with a gain of 1.573%, but it remained slightly into correction territory with a loss of 11.039% since its April 23 bull market high.

Posted 9/21/10 9:35am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Topsy-Turvy August

The S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) spent the first seven trading days of August in the black for August, in the black for 2010 YTD, and out of correction territory, that is, less than 10% down from their April 23 bull market highs.

Since then, through August 18, the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index both fell back into negative territory for August and for 2010 YTD. The S&P 500 Index moved back in and back out of correction territory, while the Nasdaq Composite Index moved back into correction territory and stayed there.

During the first seven trading days of August, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio also rose into positive territory for both August and 2010 YTD, but it never quite emerged from correction territory. Since then, through August 18, it fell back into the red for August and 2010 YTD, along with the indexes, and further into correction territory.

Mid-day on Thursday, August 19, as this entry was posted, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes were down about 2%, reversing three positive days that began the week.

Posted 8/19/10 12:44pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Bullish July

After the market hit 2010 lows in early July, the fragile bull market began to assert itself. As of July 23, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) emerged from correction territory, down 8.9% from its bull market high reached in April. The Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio, down 10.1% and 13.3%, respectively, from their bull market highs reached in April, don’t lack much to emerge from correction territory, as well.

Earnings season generally has been positive for the market so far in July, and more good results are expected from bellweathers such as Boeing, Chevron, and DuPont in the last week of July. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of economic conditions, new home sales, the Case-Schiller home price index, consumer confidence for July, durable goods orders, weekly initial jobless claims, and second-quarter GDP are all on tap to be reported during the last week of July, as well. Perhaps they will further relieve worries about a double dip recession, and the market will break definitively out of its summer doldrums.

Posted 7/24/10 6:59pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Multi-Month Downturns

Through June, 2008, the Fundranker system bucked the bear market that started in November, 2007, but in the frantic market downturn that occurred during the last half of 2008 and January and February of 2009, it gave back those gains and then some. Fundranker has had multiple-month downturns only 16 times since 1997, when historical tracking of the Top Eight Model Portfolio began, and it has had only one multiple-month downturn during the current bull market. Here are Fundranker’s losses during those downturns along with its returns during the next three months, six months, and 12 months:

       Next 3  Next 6 Next 12
     Period Months    Loss Months Months Months
Feb/Mar 1997     2 (10.478) 17.993  37.309  49.620 
Jul/Aug 1998     2 (18.332) 24.203  46.650  83.587 
Mar/May 2000     3 (14.633) 20.863  7.140  9.806 
Sep/Nov 2000     3 (11.354) 0.224  2.488  (5.267)
Jan/Mar 2001     3 (9.739) 3.670  (7.140) 12.227 
Aug/Oct 2001     3 (12.200) 13.141  23.520  (1.727)
Jun/Jul 2002     2 (15.637) (6.615) (4.395) 7.475 
Sep/Oct 2002     2 (8.563) 2.377  (4.461) 33.218 
Dec/Mar 2003     4 (7.317) 15.114  23.719  45.021 
Mar/Apr 2004     2 (10.145) 1.538  8.246  16.784 
Jul/Aug 2004     2 (3.678) 14.696  24.092  40.048 
Mar/Apr 2005     2 (6.949) 17.081  20.887  50.482 
Jul/Aug 2006     2 (3.256) 4.659  5.865  16.990 
Jul/Nov 2008     5 (46.834) (9.347) 7.189  28.094 
Jan/Feb 2009     2 (16.832) 18.245  34.694  44.814 
May/Jun 2010     2 (16.526)

The five-month downturn that began in July, 2008, was the first multiple-month downturn Fundranker had had for two years, and it is by far the worst and longest that Fundranker has suffered. As the Great Recession, the worst recession since the Great Depression, continued, Fundranker added another two-month downturn in January and February, 2009. As it did after many past multiple-month downturns, however, Fundranker was able to garner impressive returns over the following periods.

During May and June, 2010, for the first time in the current, 16-month bull market, Fundranker added another multiple-month downturn, but it bounced back significantly in the week that ended July 9.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, you still can benefit from knowing that Fundranker almost always has gone on to better performance in the months that follow a multiple-month downturn. Let this knowledge boost your confidence in Fundranker. Stay disciplined, and stick with the Fundranker system.

Posted 7/11/10 6:20pm ET in Fundranker | Permalink | Comments (0)

Bull vs. Bear

Through June 29, the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund), the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio fell 14.1%, 15.5%, and 17.7%, respectively, from bull market highs they reached on April 23. That put them way into correction territory, generally defined as a 10% decline from bull market highs, and much closer to bear market territory, generally defined as a 20% decline from bull market highs, than any of us would like.

Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winning economist and NY Times columnist, wrote recently that he fears we are heading into a third depression, which he says primarily will be a failure of policy. Governments around the world seem overly concerned with inflation, when he says the real problem is deflation, and they are preaching the need for austerity when the real problem is inadequate spending to make sure we emerge completely from the Great Recession.

So what does our current situation mean for our economy and markets? Will the bull market that started in March, 2009, with the beginning of recovery from the Great Recession be able to overcome this correction, or will it turn into a bear market? Will private business be able to take over the spending necessary to keep the world economy expanding when governments begin curtailing their stimulus spending?

We’re convinced here at Fidelity Select Fundranker that our system of regularly moving into better performing Fidelity Select funds will stand us in good stead however the market reacts to future events. It’s unlikely that we’ll see markets react again like they did when world financial systems nearly collapsed in 2007 and 2008; there almost always will be at least a few sectors that perform well, and Fundranker will find them.

Posted 6/30/10 11:54am ET in Economy, Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker in the Black

Through June 11, 2010, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio gained 1.1% YTD, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) remained in negative territory with losses of 0.8% and 1.3% YTD, respectively.

Posted 6/12/10 7:46pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)