Fidelity Select Fundranker

Fundranker Blog—February 2011 Archive

Nasdaq Recoups Great Recession Losses

We track the performance of the Nasdaq Composite Index so that we can compare performance of Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio to it. The Nasdaq Composite Index itself is a price-only index, meaning it does not account for dividends paid by its underlying stocks, so we measure the Nasdaq Composite Index using Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund, which does include dividends, thereby giving us a total return rather than a price-only return for the Nasdaq Composite Index.

As of February 8 and 9, on a total return basis, our Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Portfolio, based on Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund, completely recouped the losses it incurred during the Great Recession. Our Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Portfolio stood at $57,472.15 as of October 31, 2007. It fell 55.1% to a low of $25,806.24 on March 9, 2009, during the Great Recession. On February 9, it stood at $57,489.51 for a gain of 122.8% from that March 9 low.

Note that calculations using the Nasdaq Composite Index itself, because it is a price-only index and does not account for dividends of its underlying stocks, give slightly different numbers for Great Recession losses and current bull market gains. The Nasdaq Composite Index stood at 2,859.12 on October 31, 2007, at the end of the previous bull market, at 1,268.64 at its March 9, 2009, Great Recession low, and at 2,789.07 on February 9. Using these figures, the Nasdaq Composite Index's price-only Great Recession loss was 55.6%, and its price-only bull market gain was 119.8%. As of February 9, the Nasdaq Composite Index lacked 70 points of regaining its 2007 high.

Posted 2/9/11 8:45pm ET in Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Five-Month Winning Streak

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio extended its latest multi-month gain to five months—September, 2010, through January, 2011. The table below shows all of Fundranker’s multi-month gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index - Investor Class Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/Sep 2009     7 42.376  54.521  45.835 
Nov/Dec 2009     2 10.099  11.240  8.041 
Feb/Apr 2010     3 19.803  14.838  11.021 
Sep/Jan 2011     5 30.390  28.109  23.460 

With its current five-month upturn, Fundranker rose 18 months during the 23-month bull market that started in March, 2009. Fundranker was up again through February 7; perhaps it will extend its bull market run and this latest multi-month upturn still another month.

Over all the upturns, Fundranker gained an average of 21.946%; the S&P 500 Index gained only 12.279% on average. Over the 14 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite Index, Fundranker gained an average of 17.742%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 14.593% on average. See our Fundranker Upturns December 2010 Update post for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes.

Posted 2/7/11 8:50pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)