Fidelity Select Fundranker

Fundranker Blog—August 2009 Archive

Rally vs. Bull Market

The rally that started from the market low reached on March 9, 2009, is still going strong. When does it become a bull market? The answer is subjective and hard to pin down, but it generally calls for a prolonged period of rising stock prices. This rally has lasted nearly six months, but that is rather short compared to previous well-known bull markets. On the other hand, the stock market has increased dramatically in the five plus months since March 9. As of August 24, 2009, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio were up 59.5%, 53.3%, and 43.0%, respectively, since March 9.

There are several promising signs that this rally could continue. Consumer confidence rose more than expected in August, the housing sector is showing signs of improvement, the automotive sector just got a huge shot in the arm with the Cash for Clunkers program, unemployment dipped in July, and monthly job losses in July came in at 247,000, the fewest in a year.

Posted 8/25/09 3:39pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)

Fundranker Upturns August Update

Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio has gone up another couple of months since we last reviewed Fundranker’s upturns. The table below shows Fundranker’s gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by the Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:

      FSF Nasdaq S&P 500
     Period Months Return  Return   Return
Apr/Jul 1997     4 30.508    26.737 
Nov/Dec 1997     2 3.682    6.342 
Feb/Apr 1998     3 16.283    13.686 
Sep/Jan 1999     5 57.092    34.423 
Mar/Apr 1999     2 12.267    8.028 
Oct/Feb 2000     5 79.523    6.960 
Apr/May 2001     2 5.270    8.454 
Nov/May 2002     7 24.740    1.461 
Apr/Aug 2003     5 27.002    19.657 
Oct/Feb 2004     5 22.058  13.227  15.740 
May/Jun 2004     2 5.001  6.771  3.309 
Sep/Dec 2004     4 15.808  18.259  10.379 
May/Sep 2005     5 26.361  12.312  7.029 
Nov/Jan 2006     3 22.953  8.880  6.555 
Mar/Apr 2006     2 8.780  1.820  13.073 
Nov/Jan 2007     3 7.126  13.073  11.059 
Mar/Jun 2007     4 9.584  7.986  7.446 
Aug/Oct 2007     3 14.491  12.500  6.942 
Apr/Jun 2008     3 13.553  0.761  (2.739)
Mar/July 2009     5 31.294  43.890  35.681 

Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.669%; the S&P 500 gained only 11.487% on average. Over the 11 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.092%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 11.487% on average. See our June post about Fundranker Upturns for earlier information.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Posted 8/15/09 11:25am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)