Fundranker Blog—August 2009 Archive
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Rally vs. Bull Market
The rally that started from the market low reached on March 9, 2009, is still going strong. When does it become a bull market? The answer is subjective and hard to pin down, but it generally calls for a prolonged period of rising stock prices. This rally has lasted nearly six months, but that is rather short compared to previous well-known bull markets. On the other hand, the stock market has increased dramatically in the five plus months since March 9. As of August 24, 2009, the Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund), the S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund), and Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio were up 59.5%, 53.3%, and 43.0%, respectively, since March 9.
There are several promising signs that this rally could continue. Consumer confidence rose more than expected in August, the housing sector is showing signs of improvement, the automotive sector just got a huge shot in the arm with the Cash for Clunkers program, unemployment dipped in July, and monthly job losses in July came in at 247,000, the fewest in a year.
Posted 8/25/09 3:39pm ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)
Fundranker Upturns August Update
Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio has gone up another couple of months since we last reviewed Fundranker’s upturns. The table below shows Fundranker’s gains and compares them to returns of the Nasdaq Composite (as measured by Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the S&P 500 (as measured by the Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund) over the same time periods. Since we didn’t start tracking the Nasdaq Composite until October, 2003, its returns are shown starting in 2004:
| FSF | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | ||
| Period | Months | Return | Return | Return |
| Apr/Jul 1997 | 4 | 30.508 | 26.737 | |
| Nov/Dec 1997 | 2 | 3.682 | 6.342 | |
| Feb/Apr 1998 | 3 | 16.283 | 13.686 | |
| Sep/Jan 1999 | 5 | 57.092 | 34.423 | |
| Mar/Apr 1999 | 2 | 12.267 | 8.028 | |
| Oct/Feb 2000 | 5 | 79.523 | 6.960 | |
| Apr/May 2001 | 2 | 5.270 | 8.454 | |
| Nov/May 2002 | 7 | 24.740 | 1.461 | |
| Apr/Aug 2003 | 5 | 27.002 | 19.657 | |
| Oct/Feb 2004 | 5 | 22.058 | 13.227 | 15.740 |
| May/Jun 2004 | 2 | 5.001 | 6.771 | 3.309 |
| Sep/Dec 2004 | 4 | 15.808 | 18.259 | 10.379 |
| May/Sep 2005 | 5 | 26.361 | 12.312 | 7.029 |
| Nov/Jan 2006 | 3 | 22.953 | 8.880 | 6.555 |
| Mar/Apr 2006 | 2 | 8.780 | 1.820 | 13.073 |
| Nov/Jan 2007 | 3 | 7.126 | 13.073 | 11.059 |
| Mar/Jun 2007 | 4 | 9.584 | 7.986 | 7.446 |
| Aug/Oct 2007 | 3 | 14.491 | 12.500 | 6.942 |
| Apr/Jun 2008 | 3 | 13.553 | 0.761 | (2.739) |
| Mar/July 2009 | 5 | 31.294 | 43.890 | 35.681 |
Over all the upturns, Fundranker now has an average gain of 21.669%; the S&P 500 gained only 11.487% on average. Over the 11 upturns during which we tracked the Nasdaq Composite, Fundranker now has an average gain of 16.092%; the Nasdaq Composite gained only 11.487% on average. See our June post about Fundranker Upturns for earlier information.
Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, it’s still great to know that Fundranker regularly outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.
Posted 8/15/09 11:25am ET in Fundranker, Market | Permalink | Comments (0)
