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Fundranker Blog—Fundranker Downturns

Fundranker Downturns

Through June, 2008, the Fundranker system bucked the bear market trend that started November, 2007, but in the frantic market downturn during the last half of 2008 and January and February of 2009, it gave back those gains and then some. Fundranker has had multiple-month downturns only 15 times since 1997, when historical tracking of the Top Eight Model Portfolio began. Here are Fundranker’s losses during those downturns along with its returns during the next 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months:

       Next 3  Next 6 Next 12
     Period Months    Loss Months Months Months
Feb/Mar 1997     2 (10.478) 17.993  37.309  49.620 
Jul/Aug 1998     2 (18.332) 24.203  46.650  83.587 
Mar/May 2000     3 (14.633) 20.863  7.140  9.806 
Sep/Nov 2000     3 (11.354) 0.224  2.488  (5.267)
Jan/Mar 2001     3 (9.739) 3.670  (7.140) 12.227 
Aug/Oct 2001     3 (12.200) 13.141  23.520  (1.727)
Jun/Jul 2002     2 (15.637) (6.615) (4.395) 7.475 
Sep/Oct 2002     2 (8.563) 2.377  (4.461) 33.218 
Dec/Mar 2003     4 (7.317) 15.114  23.719  45.021 
Mar/Apr 2004     2 (10.145) 1.538  8.246  16.784 
Jul/Aug 2004     2 (3.678) 14.696  24.092  40.048 
Mar/Apr 2005     2 (6.949) 17.081  20.887  50.482 
Jul/Aug 2006     2 (3.256) 4.659  5.865  16.990 
Jul/Nov 2008     5 (46.834) (9.347) 7.189 
Jan/Feb 2009     2 (16.832) 18.245 

The five-month downturn that began in July, 2008, was the first multiple-month downturn Fundranker had had for two years, and it is by far the worst and longest that Fundranker has suffered. As the worst recession since the Great Depression continued, Fundranker added another two-month downturn in January and February, 2009, and it was nearly as bad as the previous worst multiple-month downturn, July through August, 1998, when Fundranker fell over 18% but gained over 83% during the next 12 months. During the last big bear market, Fundranker had three multiple-month downturns over the ten-month period from June, 2002, through March, 2003, but it gained 45% in the next 12 months.

Although past results are never an assurance of future performance, you still can benefit from knowing that Fundranker almost always has gone on to better performance in the months that follow a multiple-month downturn. Let this knowledge boost your confidence in Fundranker. Stay disciplined, and stick with the Fundranker system.

Posted 6/3/09 at 9:31pm ET in Fundranker

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