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March 2015 Daily Chart
Through March 31, Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio outperformed both the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Nasdaq Composite Index Fund) and the broad S&P 500 Index (as measured by Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index Fund - Investor Class):
The Federal Open Market Committee met most recently on March 17 and 18. Its policy statement released at the end of that meeting no longer referred to being “patient” on raising rates. But Fed Chair Janet Yellen emphasized in her press conference after the statement, “Just because we removed the word ‘patient’ from the statement doesn’t mean we’re going to be impatient ... In particular, this change does not mean that an increase will necessarily occur in June, although we can’t rule that out.”
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, in remarks Tuesday, March 31, at the Richmond Fed, said “... the case for raising rates will remain strong at the June meeting.” Lacker is considered to be hawkish on rates. He dissented at all eight FOMC meetings 2012 in favor of tighter monetary policy, but he has voted with the majority at both meetings held in 2015. Lacker rotated out of a voting position on the FOMC during 2013 and 2014.
On April 1, Dennis Lockhart, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, told reporters “The weakness of the first quarter got my attention. I still believe the factors are transitory. We will see a pick-up.” He feels an interest rate hike is likely in the June to September period. Lockhart is considered a centrist on the FOMC.
At the March 17-18 meeting, officials also cut their median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2015 to 0.625% from 1.125% in their December forecasts, leading many market participants to expect the FOMC’s rate “lift-off” to be in the fall rather than mid-year.
The FOMC will meet six more times this year in April, June, July, September, October, and December.
TOP EIGHT MODEL PORTFOLIO MARCH 2015
|1. Electronics (FSELX)|
|2. Biotechnology (FBIOX)|
|3. Medical Equipment & Systems (FSMEX)|
|4. Health Care (FSPHX)|
|5. Medical Delivery (FSHCX)|
|6. Retailing (FSRPX)|
|7. Pharmaceuticals (FPHAX)|
|8. Consumer Discretionary (FSCPX)|
EXCHANGES FOR MARCH 4, 2015
|Sell Consumer Staples (FDFAX),|
|buy Retailing (FSRPX)|
|Sell Air Transportation (FSAIX),|
|buy Consumer Discretionary (FSCPX)|
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
About Fidelity Select Fundranker
Fidelity Select Fundranker employs a straightforward investment strategy—invest in Fidelity Investments Select mutual funds that are doing the best right now, and move regularly into better performing funds.
Fundranker utilizes a technical investment system, which means no guesswork, no predictions, no judgments. Each month, Fundranker rates and ranks Fidelity Investments’ 41 Select mutual funds (39 as of June 19, 2009) according to various aspects of their recent performance and selects the top eight funds in which to invest. To follow the Fundranker system, an investor typically would make two or three exchanges at the beginning of each month to stay in the top eight funds.
Fidelity Select Fundranker’s Top Eight Model Portfolio set a new all-time high on March 20. From the hypothetical portfolio’s January 2, 1997, start date through March 20, 2015, it gained a fantastical 1,365.953%. During that same period, on a total return basis, the S&P 500 Index gained only 291.875%:
Beginning March, 2009, through March, 2015, in a 6-year, 1-month old bull market that started at the depths of the Great Recession, the Top Eight Model Portfolio led the S&P 500 Index but trailed the Nasdaq Composite Index:
For a long-term comparison, over the 10-year period that ended March 31, 2015, the Top Eight Model Portfolio outperformed both the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 index:
Want more information? Find out how the Fidelity Select Fundranker system was developed, peruse frequently asked questions, review our charts and results, and see Fidelity Select Fundranker’s recent Hulbert Financial Digest would be rankings.
“I find your publication to be of great interest and benefit to me in my investing work, and I appreciate your research and thoughtful commentaries. You have a very effective method of analyzing the performance (based on data and analysis...not hope) of the Fidelity funds, and frankly it would be quite a lot of work for an individual to replicate this each month for themselves.” George Hecht